China & the Ukraine War - Xi as Helmsman - Politburo Meeting & Human Rights - Indo-Pacific Forum - BRI Data - 'NSA Backdoor' - 2021 BRI Data
I. China & the Ukraine War
by Manoj Kewalramani
It’s been a week of rapid developments with the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, February 24.
On Friday morning, Megha and I published a detailed research note analysing the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on China’s interests. The note discusses the Chinese government’s diplomatic and narrative responses to the crisis, provides a cost-benefit analysis from a Chinese interests perspective, and offers a view on the potential course of Chinese policy.
You can read the full note here, but I am sharing below our assessment of China’s policy direction amid the conflict:
“China will in all likelihood continue to extend support for Russia. Politically, Beijing — Xi Jinping in fact — is deeply invested in the bilateral relationship with Moscow and Vladimir Putin. The China-Russia bilateral relationship is qualitatively different today, as compared to 2014, and Beijing’s perception of the world and the United States’ policies towards itself are fundamentally different today too. Consequently, one should expect greater support than in 2014. But this will not imply a blanket support for Russian aggression. There will be limits to what Beijing can and will do.
In saying this, there are a two caveats that are particularly worth noting:
First, Beijing is clearly anticipating that sanctions imposed by the US and its allies will imply economic costs. While it will likely provide greater financial support to Moscow than 2014, this will be weighed against the cost to China’s economic interests. Therefore, it will be important to watch what kind of sanctions are imposed and how stringently these are implemented.
Second, China would not like to be seen as an overt enabler of a long-drawn Russian occupation. This will entail reputational costs in the developing world and economic costs at home and with regard to political and economic ties with Europe, in particular. Therefore, the extent of Chinese support will be dependent on variables like the scale and duration of the conflict and the reactions of European states.
Finally, it is worth remembering that 2022 is a critical year for Xi Jinping’s continued leadership of the Communist Party. Political calculations heading into the 20th Party Congress will weigh on the Chinese leadership’s mind as it responds to unfolding events. The fact that Putin launched the offensive weeks after the bilateral summit with Xi in February and immediately after the closing of the Winter Olympics puts Beijing in an awkward position. At worst, it is likely to cement the perception of China’s complicity in the decision for war. At best, it implies that Xi Jinping locked the Chinese side into a situation in which the tail could wag the dog. Either way, this is likely to be the source of some frustration among the political elite in China.”
Of course, since we published the note, there have been a couple of key developments.
First, there was a call between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The Chinese readout of the call begins with both sides talking about the Winter Olympics. “Xi thanked Putin again for coming to China to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics,” Xinhua reported.
It added: “The two sides mainly exchanged views on the current Ukrainian situation. Putin introduced the historical context of the Ukraine issue as well as Russia’s special military operation in eastern Ukraine and its position. He said that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have long ignored Russia’s legitimate security concerns, repeatedly broken their commitments and continuously pushed their military deployment eastwards, which challenged Russia’s strategic bottom line. Russia is ready to hold high-level negotiation with Ukraine, said Putin.”
I am not going into greater details here, but it’s worth noting that the talks have not materialised. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Saturday said that: “In connection with the expected negotiations, the Russian president yesterday afternoon ordered the suspension of the advance of the main forces of the Russian Federation. Since the Ukrainian side refused to negotiate, the advance of the Russian forces resumed this afternoon.”
Anyway, Xinhua reports that:
Xi told Putin that recent dramatic changes in the situation in eastern Ukraine have drawn great attention from the international community, adding that China decides on its position based on the merits of the Ukrainian issue itself. He called on dropping the Cold War mentality, attaching importance and respecting the legitimate security concerns of various countries and forming a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiation. The Chinese side supports the Russian side in solving the issue through negotiation with the Ukrainian side, Xi said, adding that China has been consistent in its basic position on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China is ready to work with members of the international community to embrace the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and firmly uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core and the international order based on international law.
Also, there was a vote at the United Nations Security Council on a resolution that Russia vetoed. China abstained from the resolution. In its explanation of the decision to abstain, Ambassador Zhang Jun said:
“China is deeply concerned about the latest developments of the situation in Ukraine. Currently, it has come to the point which we do not want to see. China always forms its own position according to the merits of the matter at hand. We believe that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states should be respected, and that the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be jointly upheld. We have always called on all parties to seek reasonable solutions to address each other’s concerns through peaceful means on the basis of equality and mutual respect. We welcome and encourage all efforts for a diplomatic solution, and support the Russian Federation and Ukraine in resolving the issue through negotiations…At present, faced with the very complex and sensitive situation, the Security Council should make a necessary response. At the same time, such a response should also be extremely cautious. Any action should be truly conducive to defusing the crisis, rather than adding fuel to fire. If not properly handled, or blindly exerting pressure and imposing sanctions, it may only lead to more casualties, more property loss, more complicated and chaotic situations, and more difficulties in bridging differences. It may completely shut the door to a peaceful solution, and eventually it is the vast number of innocent people that will be the victims. We must draw profound lessons from the extremely painful experience in the past. For this reason, China abstained in the voting just now.”
Zhang also said that the Ukraine issue was the “result of the interplay of various factors over a long period of time.” He added that “China advocates the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. We believe that one country's security cannot be at the expense of the security of others, and that regional security should not rely on muscling up or even expanding military blocs. The legitimate security concerns of all countries should be respected. Against the backdrop of five successive rounds of NATO’s eastward expansion, Russia’s legitimate security aspirations should be given attention to and properly addressed.”
Also, there were calls between Wang Yi and British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell as well as Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic counselor to French President Emmanuel Macron. Wang outlined China’s five-point position on tensions in Ukraine.
Firstly, China stands for respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and earnestly abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China’s position is consistent and clear, and it also applies to the Ukraine issue.
Secondly, China advocates the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. China believes that a country’s security cannot come at the expense of harming others’ security, and regional security cannot be guaranteed by reinforcing and even expanding military blocs. And all countries’ reasonable security concerns should be respected. The Cold War mentality should be completely abandoned. Following the five consecutive rounds of eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia’s legitimate demands on security should be taken seriously and solved in a proper way.
Thirdly, China has been following the evolution of the Ukraine issue, and the present situation is something China does not want to see. It is absolutely imperative that all parties exercise necessary restraint in order to prevent the situation in Ukraine from deteriorating or even getting out of control. The safety of ordinary people’s lives and properties should be effectively safeguarded, and in particular, large-scale humanitarian crises have to be prevented.
Fourthly, the Chinese side supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. And China welcomes direct talks and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible. The Ukraine issue has evolved in a complex historical context. Ukraine should be a bridge of communication between the East and the West, instead of the frontline of confrontations between major countries. China also supports Europe and Russia in their efforts to hold dialogue on an equal footing over the European security issue, uphold the notion of indivisible security, and eventually form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism.
Fifthly, China believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine issue and that regional peace and stability as well as the security of all countries should be put first. Actions taken by the Security Council should reduce the tension rather than add fuel to the flames, and should help advance the settlement of the issue through diplomatic means rather than further escalating the situation. China is always opposed to wilfully citing the Chapter VII in Security Council resolutions to authorize the use of force and sanctions.
Amid this, it’s worth noting that Chinese citizens continue to be caught in a bind in Ukraine. The Chinese embassy has been scrambling for a clear response. Earlier this week on Tuesday the Chinese embassy told Chinese citizens to stock up on food and water, stay connected, and avoid unstable regions. Then later once the war broke out, it asked citizens to do the following.
And then later in the week, the embassy reversed this call, urging citizens not to reveal their identity or display and identifying signs for the fear of “growing extreme behaviour.” The ambassador also had the following message.
Another aspect of the discussion with regard to China has been about what exactly and how much did the Chinese leadership knew about the Russian plan to invade Ukraine.
NYT’s Edward Wong reported this week that:
“Over three months, senior Biden administration officials held half a dozen urgent meetings with top Chinese officials in which the Americans presented intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade, according to U.S. officials. Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said. The previously unreported talks between American and Chinese officials show how the Biden administration tried to use intelligence findings and diplomacy to persuade a superpower it views as a growing adversary to stop the invasion of Ukraine, and how that nation, led by President Xi Jinping, persistently sided with Russia even as the evidence of Moscow’s plans for a military offensive grew over the winter.”
WSJ’s Lingling Wei’s report on the issue says:
“For weeks, China’s foreign-policy establishment dismissed a steady stream of warnings from the U.S. and its European allies about a pending Russian invasion, and instead blamed Washington for hyping the Russian threats. Now, China is trying to regain its balance after making a calculation that could seriously undermine a position it has tried to build for itself as a global leader and advocate for developing nations. As late as this week, with signs looming of an impending invasion, when a well-connected foreign-policy scholar in China gave a talk to a group of worried Chinese investors and analysts, he titled the speech ‘A War That Won’t Happen.’ ‘We see little chance of Russia unilaterally declaring war on Ukraine,’ Shen Yi, a professor of international relations at Shanghai’s Fudan University who advises the government, said at the Tuesday teleconference held by a securities firm, according to people who dialed into the call. Less than 48 hours later, Mr. Putin launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine. The persistent brushing off of the invasion risks, say people with knowledge of Beijing’s inner workings, went into Mr. Xi’s calculus in signing on to a deeper partnership with Russia on Feb. 4, the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics. In the days leading up to Mr. Putin’s visit to Beijing, policy advice to China’s top leadership focused on how the partnership could give China leverage over the U.S. but played down or even outright dismissed the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to people close to Beijing’s foreign-policy establishment. “Whoever gives policy recommendations in China wants to cater to what the top leader wants to hear,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. “They feed information into that direction.” That led to Beijing dismissing U.S. warnings to the global community, based on intelligence that Mr. Putin wasn’t bluffing about his intentions to invade.”
The report later adds:
“In meeting with Mr. Xi before attending the opening ceremony of the Olympics, say the people close to Beijing’s foreign-policy establishment, the Russian leader shared his grievances against the U.S.—complaints they say deeply resonated with a Chinese leader who has accused Washington of trying to build cliques to hurt China. But Mr. Putin left his plans for Ukraine out of the conversation, the people said.”
Finally, I am sharing below a thread that I put together yesterday on the China-Russia dynamic.
And lastly, a little, extremely speculative, thought experiment for everyone. If this conflict in Ukraine were in one way or the other result in the ouster of Vladimir Putin, then:
What would that mean for Chinese calculations regarding the use of force to take Taiwan?
What would that mean for the future of China’s domestic politics?
Also Read:
Joint Statement on Further Restrictive Economic Measures - The latest sanctions announcement
Xi pursues policy of ‘pro-Russia neutrality’ despite Ukraine war
Germany stresses China's "special responsibility" over Ukraine
II. Chinese Analysts & Social Media on Ukraine
by Swayamsiddha Samal
With the war in Ukraine dominating international headlines, Chinese analysts have been debating the country’s policy options. While hardliners advocate a pro-Russian foreign policy, others believe Beijing should take advantage of the crisis to strengthen ties with Washington. Here is what different Chinese scholars have to say about the crisis.
China has consistently urged a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine crisis through dialogue. Although China and Russia have moved beyond "marriage of convenience" to a quasi-alliance, the giant neighbours' relations are far from a formal alliance requiring one to send troops if the other faces threats, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University. However, he also stated that China will not support Russia's invasion of Ukraine but will not publicly condemn it. He thinks that due to Russian President Vladimir Putin's strong preference for risk-taking and gambling, China's ability or even willingness to persuade and restrain Russia was quite limited, which may have been detrimental to China's global prestige. Nevertheless, he believes that if Russia escalates its aggression, the United States and Western countries will impose unprecedentedly severe financial sanctions on Russia, which will have a significant impact on the majority of Chinese companies doing business with Russia.
Yang Cheng, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University and the executive director of the Shanghai Institute for Global Governance and Regional Studies, stated that while China understands Russia's security concerns, it does not support the current development of the situation in Ukraine. He said that China's policy is to pick a side, to oppose NATO's eastward expansion, and to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. He held a more optimistic view when it came to China’s relations with the West on this issue. Yang Cheng pointed out that both China-EU and China-US relations have a rich agenda that far outnumbers Ukraine. Furthermore, China's current practices maintain the basic policy framework of the past. As a result, the tensions in the region will have no effect on the interaction between China, the United States, and Europe.
Chinese scholars also talked about the crumbling US hegemony. “This is a very different world than it was 50 years ago,” said Bin Yu, senior fellow at East China Normal University's Russian Studies Center in Shanghai. “America was on top, capable of dealing with both countries.” America is now confronted by two major powers.” Yu went on to say that the Chinese could provide almost everything the Russians required, and that Russia, in turn, could provide China with more energy. However, she stated that the most important aspect of the relationship between the two countries was diplomatic support.
Guo Zhengliang, a former legislator, says that the Russian attack comes from Putin’s anger at NATO and the entire process after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He also said that what happened was totally unbelievable for everyone and that they underestimated Putin’s huge ambitions. He also shed light on the two requirements by the Russians which he termed as ‘troublesome'. The first was that Ukraine needed to be neutral, and the second was that Europe and the United States needed to return to the 1997 military status.
"China, in the end, wants good relations with the US," said Wang Huiyao, president of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based think tank that also advises the government. He went on to say that China sees some parallels between Nato's eastward expansion and its own concerns about the South China Sea.
In addition to sanctions, scholars are also talking about the effect on trade deals between China and Russia. According to Chen Fengying, a senior fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, Western sanctions will have no effect on China-Russian trade because both countries have increased the use of local currencies in settlements. China imports a significant amount of Russian oil and gas. She explained that both countries had numerous ways to implement trade agreements. She had previously stated that some Western countries' cold war mentalities had brought China and Russia closer together. "There's no other option but to hug for warmth," she explained. "Both countries must work together to relieve their respective pressures."
The Russian invasion of Ukraine also sparked trending topics on Chinese social media. On Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter, a “humorous” attempt at the war was made. A thread named "Willing to shelter 18- to 24-year-old Ukrainian girls" began trending on Thursday. Many users condemned the thread saying there were Ukrainian citizens in pain and certain people were taking it lightly by making racist jokes.
Many people were disgusted by posts and accounts that praised Russia's actions. Nonetheless, pro-Russian users on Weibo found plenty of space to express their support for President Vladimir Putin. "Residents of eastern Ukraine celebrate Putin's recognition of republics with fireworks," became the platform's fourth most popular topic. Some people praised Russian President Vladimir Putin's boldness and assertiveness as a leader.
The response of Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying to a reporter's question about whether Beijing plans to supply arms to Russia ranked second on Weibo's list of trending topics. "There is a fundamental difference between China and the United States on this issue. When there is a risk of conflict, we will not act in the same way as the United States, which has offered Ukraine a large amount of military equipment "According to the Foreign Ministry's official transcript, Hua stated on Thursday. "I believe that Russia, as a strong country, does not require weapons from China or other countries."
There was also a new phrase capturing the mood on Chinese social media in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: wuxin gongzuo (乌心工作), which means people are so preoccupied with what is going on in Ukraine that they are unable to focus on work. The term that has become a meme on Chinese social media today is a play on the term wuxin gongzuo (无心工作), which means "not in the mood to work."
Meanwhile, an article with the title "People Who Cheer on Wars Are A———-" has received over 21,000 shares and 35,600 likes on WeChat.
Many embassies and ministers took to Weibo to express their concerns. The Ukrainian Embassy in China took to Weibo to criticise Russia. It said , “It is time to act to end Russian aggression and restore peace and stability in Europe.” The statement was said in Chinese language and received 800,000 likes in two days.
Last week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to defuse tensions in Ukraine with a Weibo post urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in dialogue. By Wednesday evening, before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Johnson's post had received 1.66 million likes. Johnson has been posting on Weibo since 2020, using an official account set up in 2013 by the Prime Minister's Office.
Yang Cheng stated that countries are placing a greater emphasis on China and, as a result, feel a greater urgency to explain their positions in the Chinese-speaking world. "Their voices can be heard in the Western world because the Western media dominates the English-speaking world," he said.
Some useful threads to read:
Also Read:
Chinese Media on the War in Ukraine: How the US is to blame (for everything, apparently), Sanctions, and why Ukraine is not Taiwan - Highly recommend this.
Mockery of West, Warnings to Taiwan Fill Chinese Social Media After Ukraine Invasion
III. Politburo Meeting, Human Rights & Xi as the Helmsman
While the news cycle is focussed on Ukraine, there were a bunch of key developments in China this week.
Let’s begin with the Politburo meeting on Friday, which discussed the draft government work report that will be presented by Li Keqiang to the NPC next week. Xinhua reports:
“Stability is the top priority of this year's work, the meeting noted. It urged further efforts to stabilize the economy, steadfastly deepen reforms and boost the vitality of market entities. Further efforts should be made to firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, bolster agricultural production, pursue higher-standard opening up, and promote the stable development of foreign trade and investment, said the meeting. It also called for efforts to persistently improve the ecological environment, forestall and defuse financial risks, and safeguard and improve people's living standards. The government should step up its self-improvement and strive to achieve socio-economic development targets set for this year, said the meeting.”
The meeting also signalled tough action ahead when it comes to the financial sector.
“Since the CPC's 19th national congress in 2017, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has upheld and strengthened its centralized, unified leadership over financial work. Efforts have been made to ensure that the financial sector serves the real economy and to punish corruption and defuse major risks in the sector, the meeting said. The meeting stressed the need to strengthen the centralized, unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee over financial work, and to stay firmly on the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics.
It also called for more effective prevention and control of financial risks and resolute maintenance of financial stability. The punishment and handling of corruption in the financial sector and countermeasures guarding against financial risks should be conducted simultaneously, said the meeting. It ordered efforts to advance financial reforms and continue modernizing the system and capacity for financial governance.”
This bit about the financial sector should read in conjunction with the report earlier this week about the outcomes of the inspection of 25 key financial units. The inspection found “many outstanding problems in the party committees (leading groups) of financial institutions in implementing the overall leadership of the Party, strengthening Party building and promoting the comprehensive and strict administration.” I did a breakdown of this in my People’s Daily tracker here, if you are interested.
There was also a Politburo study session this week, which saw Xi talking about human rights. This report dominated the front page of the People’s Daily on Sunday. Xi talked about the Party’s “unswerving adherence to China’s path of human rights development.” Xi said that since the 18th Party Congress,
“the problem of absolute poverty has been solved, whole-process people’s democracy further developed, social equity and justice firmly safeguarded, and the world’s largest education, social security and healthcare systems established. China has effectively combated COVID-19 to protect the health and safety of the people to the greatest extent possible. China maintains that all ethnic groups are equal, respects people’s religious beliefs, and safeguards the lawful rights and interests of people of all ethnic groups…China has ensured long-term social stability. It is the only major country in the world that has consecutively formulated and enforced four national human rights action plans. It also actively participates in global governance on human rights.”
Xi then noted six main features of China’s development of human rights:
upholding the Party’s leadership
respecting the people’s principal position
proceeding from national realities
upholding the rights to subsistence and development as the primary and basic human rights
safeguarding human rights in accordance with the law
participating in global governance on human rights.
Quick thought: So the first feature of human rights with Chinese characteristics is essentially the lack of a right to a political alternative. Also, since development is a primary human right in this framework, Xi does talk about issues like rule of law, social governance, environmental protection, employment, income distribution, education, social security, medical care, housing, elderly care, etc., as key deliverables.
The report ends with this:
“We cannot talk about human rights without taking into account social and political conditions and historical and cultural traditions of different countries. When evaluating a country’s human rights, we should not judge it by other countries’ standards, still less should we adopt double standards or even use human rights as a political tool to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs. We should grasp the strategic initiative, focus on telling the story of human rights in China, and use visual and concrete expressions to enhance the attraction, appeal and influence of contemporary Chinese human rights perspective.” — 人权是历史的、具体的、现实的，不能脱离不同国家的社会政治条件和历史文化传统空谈人权。评价一个国家是否有人权，不能以别的国家标准来衡量，更不能搞双重标准，甚至把人权当作干涉别国内政的政治工具。要把握战略主动，着力讲好中国人权故事，运用形象化、具体化的表达方式，增强当代中国人权观的吸引力、感染力、影响力.
Finally, there was an extraordinary commentary, bylined Ren Lixuan, in the People’s Daily this week. I’ve done a detailed breakdown of the piece in my PD Tracker here. But here is one noteworthy chunk:
The author argues that since the 18th Party Congress, “faced with various risks and challenges, as well as stormy waves, the CPC Central Committee, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, has issued a series of major initiatives, initiated a series of major measures, promoted a series of major tasks, overcome a series of massive challenges, and solved many tough problems that were long on the agenda but never resolved and accomplished many things that were wanted but never got done. It has handed over excellent answers that have satisfied the people, captured global attention, and will be recorded in the annals of history…The whole Party, the whole army and the people of all ethnic groups deeply realise that the reason why we could press the ‘fast-forward button’ and ‘accelerate’ the great cause of national rejuvenation in the new era is because General Secretary Xi Jinping, with the magnificence, foresight and grandeur of a Marxist politician, thinker and strategist, has remained rock-solid in stormy seas, strategising in risks and challenges, calmly controlling various complicated situations and effectively coping with various risks and challenges at home and abroad. Having a leader like General Secretary Xi Jinping is a blessing to the Party and the country, the people and the Chinese nation. With General Secretary Xi Jinping at the helm, the ship of China will sail to a glorious future without fear of wind and storms. As the core of the CPC Central Committee and the whole party, General Secretary Xi Jinping has won the heartfelt love of the whole Party, the whole army and the people of all ethnic groups in China. The whole party, the whole army and the people of all ethnic groups deeply realize that Xi Jinping Thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era is a scientific guide to push forward the cause of the Party and the country in the new era, and it is contemporary Chinese Marxism and 21st century Marxism that leads China and influences the world. As the guiding ideology of the Party, Xi Jinping Thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era has won high recognition from the whole Party, the whole army and the people of all ethnic groups. The ‘two establishments’ conform to the will of the people, reflect the public opinion, reflect the common aspiration of the whole Party, the whole army and the people of all ethnic groups in China, and are the people’s choice.” 人民的选择。民心是最大的政治，“两个确立”是民心所向。党的十八大以来，我们走过了极不平凡的历程，全国各族人民都是党和国家事业发展的参与者、见证者。面对种种风险挑战乃至惊涛骇浪，以习近平同志为核心的党中央出台一系列重大方针政策，推出一系列重大举措，推进一系列重大工作，战胜一系列重大风险挑战，解决了许多长期想解决而没有解决的难题，办成了许多过去想办而没有办成的大事，交出了一份人民满意、世界瞩目、可以载入史册的优异答卷。全面建成小康社会目标如期实现，党和国家事业取得历史性成就、发生历史性变革，彰显了中国特色社会主义的强大生机活力，党心军心民心空前凝聚振奋，为实现中华民族伟大复兴提供了更为完善的制度保证、更为坚实的物质基础、更为主动的精神力量。全党全军全国各族人民深刻认识到，新时代民族复兴伟业之所以能按下“快进键”、跑出“加速度”，就是因为习近平总书记以马克思主义政治家、思想家、战略家的恢弘气魄、远见卓识、雄韬伟略，惊涛骇浪中坚如磐石，风险挑战中运筹帷幄，从容驾驭各种复杂局面，有效应对国内外各种风险挑战。有习近平总书记这样的领路人，是党和国家之幸、人民之幸、中华民族之幸；有习近平总书记掌舵领航，中华“复兴”号巨轮必将无惧风雨、劈波斩浪，驶向光辉的未来。习近平总书记作为党中央的核心、全党的核心，赢得了全党全军全国各族人民的衷心爱戴。全党全军全国各族人民深刻体悟到，习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想是推动新时代党和国家事业不断向前发展的科学指南，是引领中国、影响世界的当代中国马克思主义、二十一世纪马克思主义。习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想作为党的指导思想，赢得了全党全军全国各族人民的高度认同。“两个确立”顺应民心、体现民意，反映了全党全军全国各族人民共同心愿，是人民的选择。
IV. Europe & the Indo-Pacific
by Suyash Desai
While the Russia-Ukraine crisis dominates the world’s attention, France hosted the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific on February 22nd. The meeting was meant to highlight the European Union’s (EU) strategy for the Indo-Pacific and come up with feasible projects for the region. It saw the participation of foreign ministers of the EU member states, around 30 countries from the Indo-Pacific region – including India and the representatives of major European and Indo-Pacific regional institutions.
The French Ministry of External Affairs said that it was an opportunity to “strengthen the links between EU countries and those of the Indo-Pacific and our will, as of now, to strengthen them even further.” It added that this will be a cooperation model rooted in multilateralism, the rule of law, and effecting “the principles of sustainability, openness and reciprocity.”
India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM), Dr S Jaishankar, was one of the keynote speakers for the event. In addressing the forum, Jaishankar cautioned about the importance of countering the hegemonic designs in the Indo-Pacific or else the forces of disequilibrium will spread even to Europe. “Today, we see challenges on that score with the clarity that proximity brings. And believe me, distance is no insulation. The issues we confront in the Indo-Pacific will extend beyond, even to Europe,” he said. The external affairs minister welcomed both the EU and France's commitment to the security of the Indo-Pacific as both have strong partnership presence and interests in the region. “With its economic heft and expertise, the EU can also promote economic development, infrastructure, connectivity, digital transformation, climate change, biodiversity and human-centric concerns like health, besides security. For these reasons, we welcome the EU’s Global Gateway,” Jaishankar said.
The plenary was followed by three roundtables focusing on connectivity and digital technology, global challenges (climate, biodiversity, oceans, health), and security and defence issues. The roundtable on connectivity and digital technology had a big emphasis in the European Commission’s Global Gateway strategy launched in December, a broader EU project aimed at augmenting “smart, clean and secure links in digital, energy and transport… for sustainable and trusted connections that work for people and the planet, to tackle the most pressing global challenges, from climate change and protecting the environment, to improving health security and boosting competitiveness and global supply chains.”
Meanwhile, Jaishankar also delivered a lecture on his last day in Paris at the French Institute of International Relations. He was asked about the Russian attack on Ukraine and the China threat to Taiwan. He highlighted that the two issues could not be painted with the same brush as they are not similar issues. “Both are products of very complex histories of that particular region. In the case of Ukraine, a lot of it derives from post-Soviet politics, the expansion of NATO, the dynamics between Russia and Europe, and Russia and the West broadly. I think, in the case of Taiwan, it is a product of what happened in Chinese history and what happened the way the Cold War and other developments played out in Asia,” he said in answer to a question.
V. Region Watch
by Shibani Mehta
In March last year, Bangladesh celebrated 50 years of independence. There was widespread admiration for its remarkably successful economic and social transformation but less noted are the profound geopolitical consequences of Bangladesh and its strategic importance. With both Beijing and New Delhi wanting to expand their security ties with it, Dhaka has shown rising agency in playing the geopolitical gameboard and benefiting from its external environment. A more recent instance of Dhaka’s strategic wisdom is of the Bangladesh Navy participating with warships in the Milan exercise. Hosted by the Indian Navy, the multinational exercise from February 25 to March 6 2022, is seen as bold posturing in the Indo-Pacific by Quad and others to contest China’s influence in the region. It is interesting to note that a day before the exercise began, State Minister for Disaster Enamur Rahman praised China as a time-trusted friend, essential for Bangladesh’s development in a meeting with Chinese Ambassador Li Jiming. By engaging multiple partners, Bangladesh benefits from all and stays out of any one coop.
Moving from the East to the West, it is agreed that Islamabad’s balancing act has been less than delicate. A former foreign secretary of Pakistan has argued that Pakistan must keep close ties with both China and the United States. However, Islamabad’s prospects for better ties with Washington declined following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. The move also dashed hopes to rely on Taliban assurances that it would not be the target of terrorist attacks from across the border.On the other hand, China’s, an ally, deepening relationship with Pakistan brings another dimension to the delicate balance - Islamabad must not edge too close to Moscow, given its trade link with Europe. Forcing Pakistan further into a corner are reports of a Chinese-produced main battle tank and a freshly procured heavy artillery gun facing technical issues during trials. Following the tests, the Chinese manufacturer has been notified to investigate the cause of the failure.
With increasing reliance on China and fears of isolation, reports tell that Pakistani authorities who remain predisposed to the West have proposed to discard or sideline the CPEC if Washington could propose comparable financial support.
VI. Chinese Experts Discover ‘NSA Backdoor’
by Megha Pardhi
Chinese cybersecurity firm Pangu Lab (盘古实验室 Pángǔ shíyàn shì) released a report on Feb. 23 claiming they have discovered a backdoor in Chinese systems attributed to National Security Agency (NSA) of the United States (US).
Pangu Lab has named this Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) backdoor as Bvp47 (Telescreen). The detailed report named "Equation" group affiliated with NSA as the preparator. The report is available in both English and Chinese. Zichen Wang has also provided a good summary of this incident in Pekingnology.
The report also claims that 287 important industrial institutions and systems in 45 countries have been targeted. Targeted countries include China, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Spain, UK, Italy. Japan was allegedly used as a springboard to carry out these operations. The countries have been monitored for a decade. While details of systems attacked in China are not given in report, those targeted in other countries are given, including those in Taiwan. Interestingly, many institutions targeted appear to be universities and educational institutions.
14 domains attributed to India are also on the list of victims of this backdoor. Targeted institutions in India include Banaras Hindu University, India Education Network, Eureka Technology Partners, Indian Academy of Sciences, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR) – Institute of Microbial Technology (IMTech) among others.
Global Times claimed that this is the first time a Chinese cybersecurity firm has exposed a complete chain of technical evidence about APT attacks.
Pangu Lab (full name - Beijing Qi'an Pangu Laboratory Technology Co., Ltd.) is based on a well-known cybersecurity research team called Pangu Laboratory. The firm was apparently established just a few days ago as per the notification on the website.
Similar reports of Chinese hackers targeting American and other institutions around the world are always published and widely discussed. Hence, a Chinese report exposing American hacking was probably overdue. As also noted in Pekingnology, Hu Xijin, former Editor-in-Chief of Global Times had expressed on his WeChat blog that there is no Chinese expośe of foreign cyberattacks on China. Hu Xijin posted this on his WeChat blog on Feb 21 and Pangu Lab released its report on Feb 23. That's quite a coincidence I must say.
Also Read:
Building Alternate International Payments System
This is an excerpt of my article published by the Deccan Herald. Read the full analysis here.
On Feb 24 the United Kingdom (UK) announced its '“largest ever” economic sanctions on Russia and so did the United States (US). As the sanctions get stricter, common economic interests and geopolitical considerations are likely to deepen economic relations between Beijing and Moscow, including prospects of building an alternate financial system.
Stricter financial sanctions were expected after Russia marched into Ukraine and started bombing Ukrainian cities. British PM Boris Johnson has also made a bid to push Russia out of the SWIFT international payment system widely used by banks all over the world. Such sanctions were also speculated during the 2014 Crimean crisis. If America and Europe agree to cut Russia out of SWIFT, it could seriously damage Moscow's international trading capabilities. Exclusion from the international financial system could compel Russia and China to build an alternate financial system to the Brussels-based SWIFT payments system. Iran was once cut off from the SWIFT system. However, Russia will be the first major country to be cut off.
Foreshadowing the possibility of stricter economic sanctions, Russia has already started building its alternate payment system called SPFS. Similarly, in 2015 China also launched its own version of payments systems called Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to internationalize the use of Yuan. Both countries are also exploring options to adopt these alternate models in their respective banking systems. Although both systems are in the nascent stage of development and not as widely accepted as SWIFT, it indicates Moscow and Beijing's recognition of the need to come together amidst the threat of exclusion from the international financial system. Beijing's efforts to promote digital Yuan (e-CNY) are also supposed to bolster its ability to facilitate cross-border payments. Already being tested in around 10 regions of China, the testing of e-CNY was also launched for foreigners during the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Move to build an alternate international payments system similar to SWIFT would be rooted in realism. Both countries have emerged as rivals of the West in Europe and the Indo-Pacific respectively. Both countries have faced numerous sanctions over the last few years. Both countries know sanctions may only get stricter over time. Thus, it is prudent and won't be unexpected if Beijing and Moscow stick together despite differences in their worldview. Moreover, even though there is an imbalance in Russia and China's economic relationship already, Moscow has very few options but to strengthen its relations with China.
Also Read:
Ukraine conflict: What is Swift and why are leaders divided on banning Russia?
US didn't cut off Russia from SWIFT to prevent unwanted consequences
VII. BRI Data
The People’s Daily on Sunday published a report detailing information from the Ministry of Commerce on China’s engagement with BRI partner states:
Goods trade between China and BRI partners was RMB 11.6 trillion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%. It accounts for 29.7% of China’s total foreign trade.
Direct investment in BRI countries in 2021 was RMB 138.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, accounting for 14.8% of China’s total foreign investment.
Direct investment from companies in BRI partner countries into China reached $11.25 billion. This is a new high.
The turnover of contracted projects of Chinese enterprises in countries along the routes reached RMB 578.57 billion, accounting for 57.9% of the total contracted projects overseas.