Chip imports drop as military ambitions expand
The 'Eye on China' newsletter features this week's most important developments on India-China relations, Chinese Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy, Economy and Tech, and the military!
Section A: India-China Relations
- Anushka Saxena
Firstly, reports are telling us that work on an advance landing ground at Nyoma in Eastern Ladakh will begin this month, giving a strategic advantage to forces to operate fixed and rotary wings platforms hardly 30 kilometers from Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.
The Hindu Business Line quotes “informed sources in the army” to report that the airfield would also be utilized for tourism under the regional connectivity scheme ‘Udaan’ and would offer better connectivity during extreme winters leading to the overall development of Ladakh, Army sources stated.
The report adds other important details regarding the plans:
The government has already sanctioned ₹219.39 crore towards the development of air infrastructure along the border. “Tendering for it is in the final stages and the contract is likely to be awarded by the end of April, said sources in Army. The Border Roads Organisation will do the job.
BRO Director General Lt Gen Rajeev Chaudhary plans to complete this project within two working seasons against five to six seasons taken normally for a work of this magnitude even in plains, an officer explained. The BRO has inducted all the resources to complete the project on time since the facility is expected to balance military infrastructure China has raised across the LAC in Ladakh.
Here, the resources the BRO has amassed are meant to substantially create infrastructure at the inhospitable border especially with China in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh for which they have won appreciation and global recognitions. These resources are utilized in creating an ‘Energy Efficiency Habitat’ that is climate-responsive and thermally efficient building. A central heating system with radiant floor heating will be provided along with solar hot water supply with anti-freeze measures. Such tech will inevitably be utilized across airfields.
Other than airfields, the BRO, it is learnt, is also constructing infrastructure for lines of communication for the Indian Air Force. The government is also pushing for the construction of helipads in forward locations, where aircraft cannot land, to allow quicker deployment of assets. Helipads at Hanle and Thakung in Ladakh, Anini in Arunachal Pradesh and at Mahajan firing range have emerged to scale up the mobility of the IAF and Army troops.
This project is latest in the line of border infrastructure investments the central government is making along the LAC, with an aim to rival Chinese infrastuctural endeavours and strengthen strategic advantage for Indian forces.
Next, top commanders of the Army will carry out a comprehensive review of India’s national security challenges along the borders with China and Pakistan and ways to boost the combat capability of the force at a five-day conclave beginning Monday (17 April).
The commanders’ conference will also focus on the ongoing reform process in the 1.3 million-strong force and the use of high technologies such as artificial Intelligence, robotics and virtual reality for various purposes, officials said.
Kashmir Reader reports: The Army’s plan as part of ‘Year of Transformation-2023′, along with progress on the Agnipath scheme and ambitious digitization and automation initiatives will also feature at the conference.
A talk on the future contours of Indo-China relations by former foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale, who also served as India’s envoy to Beijing, is also planned during the conference, the officials said.
During the conference from April 17 to 21, the commanders are expected to carry out an extensive review of the overall situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in view of the three-year border row in eastern Ladakh.
The Army said Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is scheduled to address the conference on April 19 where he will also review an equipment display focussing on niche technology, innovation, solutions for surveillance, artificial intelligence, training, robotics, virtual reality and operational logistics.
The anti-terror operation in Jammu and Kashmir as well as the overall situation in the Union Territory will also be deliberated upon at the conference, the officials said.
The Army Commanders’ Conference is an apex-level biannual event that is held in April and October every year. The conference is an institutional platform for conceptual-level deliberations, culminating in making important policy decisions for the Indian Army.
Finally, under the G-20 summit across the country, the Youth-20 meeting will be held in Leh in the Union Territory of Ladakh from April 26-29 during which the foreign delegates from various countries will also be taken to Pangong lake, located on the LAC with China besides other places of importance to the Buddhist religion.
Official sources told the Daily Excelsior news platform that Ladakh has been allotted a Youth-20 meeting from April 26 to 29 in which over 70 delegates from almost all G-20 countries except one or two are expected to participate. The presence of China’s delegates is uncertain, they said.
As per the schedule, the international delegates will reach Leh on April 26 and will take rest on that day to adjust themselves to climatic conditions. The Youth-20 meeting will be held on April 27. One-day sightseeing including visit to Pangong lake and some Buddhist religious places is proposed on April 28 while the delegates will return to New Delhi on April 29.
“Four-day Youth-20 meeting under G20 summit at Leh and visit of the delegates to Pangong lake which flows along the LAC with China in Eastern Ladakh will send strong message to China which had opposed such meeting in the Union Territory,” sources said.
Interested readers may refer to other developments of interest:
Chinese dual-use facilities in Myanmar and Sri Lanka raises security concerns in India
China Pressuring Bhutan To Change Stand On Doklam, Claims Report
How India will overtake China to become the most populous country
Section B: Chinese Domestic Politics
- Amit Kumar
Xi conducts a four-day inspection tour of Guangdong Province
Last week, Xi Jinping was out on a four-day inspection tour of South China’s Guangdong province. During the tour, Xi visited Zhanjiang, Maoming and Guangzhou city of the province.
Xinhua reports: “The trip followed the launch of a Party-wide campaign to conduct in-depth research and study, asking Party cadres, in particular, to go out of their offices to better understand the situations on the ground -- the prominent problems and how to solve them.”
It adds: “As the Party's top official, Xi has set an example of conducting such fact-finding research. And his inspection in Guangdong revolves around the topic of pursuing Chinese modernization.”
It further says that Xi “chose the western part of Guangdong as the focus of his research. This part of the province is less developed than the Pearl River Delta, known for the high concentration of manufacturers and hi-tech companies.”
Xi said, "Chinese modernization is aimed at promoting common prosperity and addressing the unbalanced development among regions."
Xinhua also stated: “To Xi, the root cause of unbalanced development between western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta largely resides in industries.”
On Chinese style modernisation, Xi said, “Chinese modernization is essentially different from Western modernization.” He added, “China will not tread the path of Western modernization -- with features including polarization and plunder -- as such a path leads nowhere.”
During his tour, Xi visited a lychee orchard in Maoming village. On this, Xinhua reports that Xi took stock of “local efforts to develop the lychee industry into a successful one that has brought both jobs and incomes to locals.”
“Xi learned that by growing lychees and selling them and related products, a family could earn an average annual income of 100,000 yuan (about 14,600 U.S. dollars) in a good year.”
“Hailing the broad prospects of the local lychee industry, Xi emphasized efforts to remain committed to pursuing common prosperity and increase assistance and support for places that are lagging behind financially.”
Learning of the challenges that the industry faces, Xi urged the local authorities to resolve them.
Later Xi visited Dashuiqiao Reservior in Xuwen county in Zhanjiang where “he learned about the progress of the reservoir construction and the water quality.” Here he emphasised the need for sound allocation of water resources, addressing unbalanced development among regions, and coordinating development to achieve the goal of common prosperity.
Xi also reiterated the need to ensure security while pursuing development. While touring the Donghai island in Zhangjiang, he “called for efforts to utilize both land and sea resources to guarantee food security.”
At the capital city of Guangzhou, the final leg of his trip, Xi stressed the importance to attain self-reliance in science and technology. He inspected GAC Aion New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. and “learned about the enterprise’s progress made in achieving breakthroughs in core technologies in key fields and what it has been doing in developing higher-end, smarter and greener manufacturing.”
Xi said, “China is a big country and must attach importance to the real economy and take the path of self-reliance. Core technologies in key fields should be based on independent research and development.”
He further said, “Self-reliance in no way means seeking development with our doors closed to the rest of the world. International cooperation is also welcome," adding that “China's reform and opening up policy will remain unchanged over the long term.”
On Chinese modernisation, Xi said, "With clear goals, plans and strategies, Chinese modernization will surely be achieved. We will advance the modernization drive with solid steps."
China’s two prominent civil and legal rights activists jailed
On April 10, the Shangdong court convicted rights lawyers Xu Zhiyong and Ding Jaixi for ‘subversion of state power’ and handed them 14 years and 12 years of prison sentences respectively.
Xu and Ding co-founded the New Citizens Movement in 2010 which advocated for civil rights, rule of law, and greater transparency. Ding and Xu were detained by the authorities in December 2019 and February 2020 respectively.
CNN reports:
Ding was detained by authorities in late December 2019, two weeks after he joined an informal gathering with Xu and other friends in Xiamen to discuss issues about civil society and current affairs.
Xu was detained in February 2020 in the southern city of Guangzhou after spending nearly two months in hiding.
While evading authorities, Xu issued an open letter addressed to Xi, calling on him to resign – a strikingly blunt appeal that was swiftly censored on the Chinese internet. Publicly calling for a leader to step down is an extremely risky act in China, where political dissent is tightly suppressed and severely punished, especially under Xi.
In his letter, Xu launched a blistering attack on Xi’s policies, from the tightening of the Communist Party’s controls on the economy to its suppression of freedoms in Hong Kong and its handling of the initial Covid outbreak in Wuhan.
“I don’t think you’re an evil person. You’re just not smart enough,” he wrote. “Therefore, I urge you again – which I believe is also a widely held sentiment: Mr. Xi Jinping, please step down.”
The pair were detained in 2013 for their legal activism. Ding was sentenced to three years and a half for “assembling a crowd to disturb public order,” and Xu was given four years.
After his release from prison in 2017, Xu continued to speak up about political and social matters and did not give up hopes for a better China even after being detained again.
“I’m proud to suffer for the sake of freedom, justice, and love,” he told his lawyers in 2021.
“I do not believe they can build national rejuvenation on the quicksand of lies. I do not believe the Chinese nation is destined to authoritarianism and slavery. I do not believe freedom can be forever imprisoned behind high walls. And I do not believe the future will forever be a dark night without daybreak.”
The sentencing follows similar prison terms being handed out to dissidents under Xi Jinping since the crackdown on rights activists began in 2015. BBC reports: “In 2019, Huang Qi, a journalist often called the country's "first cyber-dissident", was sentenced to 12 years in jail. The year before, democracy campaigner Qin Yongmin was handed a 13-year sentence. He had already spent a total of 22 years behind bars.”
Here is the link to a long statement made by Dr. Xu that was released before his sentencing. It captures Xu’s vision for a democratic China and is worth reading in full.
Before you read further, we have a question to ask you: does public policy excite you, and if so, are you interested in exploring the world of police wonkery in-depth? If yes, please refer to the brochures below to register for Takshashila’s flagship PGP and GCPP courses, starting soon!
Section C: Economy and Tech
- Amit Kumar
China’s Internet Watchdog releases draft rules to regulate generative AI
The Cyberspace Administration of China on April 11, 2023, proposed “Administrative Measures for Generative Artificial Intelligence Services” to “promote the healthy development and standardized application of generative artificial intelligence technology, in accordance with the ‘Network Security Law of the People’s Republic of China’ and other laws and regulations.”
The watchdog has invited public comments on the draft measures. The proposed draft measures come against the backdrop of growing public interest in ChatGPT-like generative AI tools. While ChatGPT is not accessible in China, tech giants like Baidu and Alibaba have offered alternative generative AI tools to customers in China.
The draft measures contain 21 articles. Following are some key highlights:
The measures have to conform to the Network Security Law of the People’s Republic of China, Data Security Law of the People’s Republic of China, and Personal Information Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China among others
The measures apply to research, development and utilisation of generative AI products within the PRC’s territory
Article 4 is interesting. It says “The content generated by generative AI should reflect the core values of socialism, and must not contain subversion of state power, the overthrow of the socialist system, incitement to split the country, undermine national unity, promote terrorism, extremism, and promote ethnic hatred and ethnic discrimination, violence, obscene and pornographic information, false information, and content that may disrupt economic and social order. Content generated by generative AI should be true and accurate, measures should be taken to prevent the generation of false information.
Organizations and individuals that use generative artificial intelligence products to provide services such as chat and text, image, and sound generation (hereinafter referred to as "providers"), including supporting others to generate text, image, and sound by providing programmable interfaces, etc., assume the responsibility of the producer of the content generated by the product.
Before using generative artificial intelligence products to provide services to the public, a security assessment shall be submitted to the national network information department.
The provision of generative artificial intelligence services shall require users to provide real identity information in accordance with the provisions of the "Network Security Law of the People's Republic of China.”
Providers should clarify and disclose the applicable groups, occasions, and uses of their services, and take appropriate measures to prevent users from relying too much on or indulging in generated content.
The provider shall guide users to scientifically understand and rationally use the content generated by generative artificial intelligence, not to use the generated content to damage the image, reputation and other legitimate rights and interests of others, and not to engage in commercial hype or improper marketing. When users find that the generated content does not meet the requirements of these measures, they have the right to report to the cyberspace administration or relevant competent authorities.
The entire draft is available on the Cyberspace Administration’s website.
China launches probe into Taiwan trade restrictions
China’s Ministry of Commerce on 11 April stated that it has launched a ‘trade barrier investigation’ into Taiwan’s restrictive measures against 2455 mainland products.
The announcement comes in the backdrop of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's stopover in California where she met US House speaker Kevin McCarthy. The PLA carried out a three-day drill in the Taiwan Strait in response.
The Ministry of Commerce in China said in its statement that the investigation has been launched following complaints by three mainland Chinese trade groups spanning agricultural goods, textiles and mineral-chemical products, as reported by SCMP.
The ministry informed that the investigation would be concluded by October 12, 2023, with a possibility of extension till January 12, 2024, under special circumstances. Incidentally, Taiwan’s presidential elections are due on January 13 next year.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs denied any formal notification of the probe by the Chinese. It said that Taiwan’s practices are non-discriminatory unless imported goods cause harm or violate national security. The ministry stated, “Trade across the Taiwan Strait is mutually beneficial and interactive” and that “Chinese side should not complicate trade, use its as a tool or disrupt global economic development,” the SCMP reported.
The report said that while the Chinese officials have conducted investigation inlcuding anti-dumping probes previously as well but nothing compared to the mesures undertaken currently which seeks to investigate 2455 items from Taiwan. Only last month, China lifted a seven-month-long ban on imports of two species of Taiwanese fish.
The annual trade figure between China and Taiwan stands at around US$ 200 billion. Last year, China’s exports to Taiwan accounted for US$84 billion while the Taiwanese exports to China stood at US$ 121 billion, according to Taiwan’s Bureau of Foreign Trade.
China’s export figures rises in March after five consecutive months of decline
According to data released by China customs on 13 April, China's exports for the month of March rose 14.8 per cent compared to last year. The data tells that the “surge was mainly drive by a sharp increase in shipments to the ASEAN,” which is also China’s largest trade partner. The exports to ASEAN soared by 35.43 per cent, year on year, the SCMP notes.
The report says that the growth figures have come as a surprise to the market observers as they expected the export growth to remain negative in March.
Furthermore, the import figures also eased in the month of March. The SCMP report states: “The decline of China’s imports also eased in March after falling by just 1.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$227.4 billion, up from a drop of 10.2 per cent in combined figures for January and February.”
General Administration of Customs spokesperson Lu Daliang stated that while “China’s overall foreign trade showed strong resilience in the first quarter...its trade outlook will be under pressure due to a “severe and complex” external environment.”
While exports to the US witnessed a drop of 7.8 percent in March year on year marking the eighth straight monthly decline, exports to the EU saw an increase of 3.38 percent, year on year, first since September.
Stabilising of exports to developed economies in addition to exploring new markets in the developing world has been a priority for the government. The report added that in 2022, exports to the EU, the US and Japan - China’s major developed trading partners - accounted for 36.6 percent of total exports. On the other hand, exports to countries that are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which includes the ASEAN countries, accounted for 32.9 percent.
China’s chip imports drop 23 percent in the first three months of 2023
China has imported 108.2 billion integrated circuits (IC) between January and March, down 22.9 percent from the same period last year, according to China’s General Administration of Customs, the SCMP reported.
In value terms, the chip imports declined 26.7 percent to US$ 78.5 billion in 2022 compared to US$ 107.1 billion in 2021. However, the drop in value is largely attributed due to the fall in chip prices and reduced global demand for chips.
The following data on Chinese imports of chips is of interest:
In the first three months of 2022, the total quantity of China’s chip imports dropped 9.6 per cent year-on-year to 140.3 billion ICs, while the total value increased 14.6 per cent amid higher prices a year ago.
China’s IC exports fell 13.5 per cent year-on-year to 60.9 billion units in the first three months of 2023, compared with a 4.6 per cent drop a year ago. The total value of the exports dropped 17.6 per cent.
China and the US establish Soy Value Chain Innovation Centre to facilitate sharing of agricultural expertise
In a very interesting development, amidst all the talks surrounding decoupling and trade war between the two largest world economies, the US Trade Association in partnership with the Hainan province launched the China-US Soy Value Chain Innovation Centre that will allow the 105-member US Soybean Export Council to share soy secrets with Chinese farmers.
The SCMP reports that the centre will create a network of experts that “will teach farmers in the agriculture-intensive province how to give soy-based foods to fish, shrimp, poultry and livestock so those animals “perform” better and waste less.”
As far as the US interests are concerned, the report said that “the sharing of information will help US exporters compete against rival soybean sellers in Brazil – the top soybean exporter to China – and Argentina.”
Thoughts: The decision is significant for two reasons. One, soybean along with the oilseeds has been at the centre of Xi’s drive to ensure food security as China is mostly dependent on imports to meet its needs. Thus, sharing best practices and techniques has implications for boosting China’s domestic soybean production. Secondly, it reaffirms the assertion that economic logic is hard to forgo despite the prevailing security concerns.
China is world’s largest soybean importer. Lately, China had sought to reduce its dependence on US soybean and thus increased its import from Brazil. Last year, China imported 29.5 million metric tonnes of US soybeans last year, down 8.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to Ministry of Commerce data. It says US beans accounted for 32.4 per cent of China’s total imports in 2022. During the same period, China bought 54.4 million metric tonnes of Brazilian soybeans, accounting for 59.7 per cent of China’s imports. Noting China plans to cut its reliance on imports, the report informs that China is betting on Heilongjiang, a northeastern province to boost its domestic soybean production by adding 666,667 hectares of cropland. China’s soybean cropland reached 10.2 million ha last year, up about 21 percent over 2021.
Home Prices in China indicate marginal recovery in the real estate sector
The home prices in China’s 70 big cities have further improved in March after witnessing a rebound in February previously. The SCMP reported some promising details:
New-home prices in Beijing, Shanghai and other first-tier cities rose 0.3 per cent from the previous month, compared with a 0.2 per cent month-on-month gain in February
Prices of lived-in homes gained 0.5 per cent, extending a 0.7 per cent gain a month earlier, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday.
Prices of newly built homes in tier-two cities from Hangzhou to Tianjin increased 0.6 per cent and second-hand houses in these regions registered a 0.3 per cent price gain, the data showed
Weighted average prices of newly-built homes in the 70 cities tracked by the statistics bureau rose 4.6 per cent in March on a month-on-month basis, accelerating from a 3.7 per cent gain in February, according to Goldman Sachs
The central city of Wuhan led the price gains in March. New-home prices in the capital of Hubei province recorded a 1.3 per cent month-on-month gain, the most among the 70 cities. Such prices in Beijing and Shanghai rose 0.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively, according to the statistics bureau.
Commercial banks advanced a record 634.8 billion yuan (US$92.4 billion) in medium and long-term household loans last month, a proxy for mortgage lending in China.
Of late, the government has taken a number of steps to save the property sector from failing - that accounts for close to a quarter of the country’s economy. It removed the restrictions on home purchases, cut mortgage rates, and eased liquidity access to developers.
However, the report says that the investors are unimpressed by the extent of recovery. It informs that the 33 property stocks that trade in Hong Kong have seen a drop of more than 8 percent this year. It also referred to a report by JPMorgan Chase that said, “Year-to-date sales at the top 100 developers were still 30 percent below the three-year average through 2021.
Section D: Foreign Policy Watch
- Kingshuk Saha
Brazil’s President Lula makes third state visit to China
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping will be on a state visit to China from 12 to 15 April. Lula will travel alongside a delegation of ministers, congressmen, state governors and businesspersons.
The CNN Reports: Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is heading to China on a state visit this week, with talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping expected to focus largely on trade, as well as the war in Ukraine. The 77-year-old Lula had originally planned to visit Beijing last month but was hospitalized with a bout of pneumonia. On Monday, his office announced that the trip was back on, with Brazil’s goal “to relaunch its relations with the country that has been its main trading partner since 2009.” Government figures show that China imported the equivalent of over US$89.7 billion in Brazilian products last year, and exported almost US$60.7 billion to Brazil, setting the trade value between the two countries at US$150.4 billion.
Among the dozens of accords expected to be finalized during the visit is one regarding the joint Brazilian-Chinese construction of CBERS-6 satellites, a model that “has improved technology that allows for efficient monitoring of biomes such as the Amazon Rainforest even on cloudy days,” according to a handout from the Brazilian government published Monday. While in China, Lula will also attend former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s inauguration in Shanghai as head of BRICS’s New Development Bank, a commercial bloc formed by the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Guo Cunhai, Senior Research Fellow in Latin American studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said “If Lula's trip can make Brazil formally join the BRI, then it means there will be 22 Latin American countries formally in China-proposed initiative, which has a great significance to show that the initiative is greatly welcomed in the continent.
Dong Jingsheng, deputy director of the Latin America Research Center at Peking University, said: “As Shanghai is an economic centre of China, Lula's first stop in the city shows that Brazil places a higher priority on enhancing economic and trade cooperation. With the rapid development of new economic engines like 5G and artificial intelligence in recent years, it is no longer enough to rely solely on economic and trade complementarity to meet the needs of both sides. That's why the concept of 'beyond complementarity' is being proposed, meaning that in addition to economic and trade ties, the two sides can further promote other emerging areas such as science and technology as well as financial cooperation.”
President Lula’s visit will boast Brazil’s relation with China and will help in deepening Chinese engagement in Latin America.
China’s vice-foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu visit Australia
On Wednesday (12 April), Ma Zhaoxu Chinese Vice Foreign Minister met and held meetings with Ms. Jane Adams Australian Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
The Financial Review Reports: The first senior Chinese official to visit Australia in six years is meeting with senior members of the business community in Sydney on Tuesday as Beijing and Canberra paves the way for the removal of sanctions on $20 billion worth of exports. China’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ma Zhaoxu, was scheduled to meet business leaders at a dinner hosted by the Australia China Business Council (ACBC) on Tuesday night. China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, would also attend. Mr Ma’s visit is the latest sign that diplomatic ties are thawing despite Beijing’s criticism of the AUKUS submarine deal and the Albanese government’s TikTok ban.
The report adds: Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Tuesday that Australia would suspend its World Trade Organisation appeal against China’s punitive tariffs on Australian barley, which China has agreed to review. China’s Foreign Ministry on Monday confirmed Mr. Ma would travel to Australia and Fiji this week for a “new round of political consultation”. The Foreign Ministry spokesman said Mr. Ma was invited by Australia. It is the first visit by a senior Chinese official since diplomatic relations between Beijing and Canberra turned sour in 2017 over growing concern about Chinese foreign interference.
Former premier Li Keqiang visited in 2016 when he participated in trade talks and watched an AFL game with then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. President Xi Jinping has not visited since 2014. Mr. Ma was promoted in Mr. Xi’s ministerial shake-up earlier this year. The visit comes ahead of an expected trip to China by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese later this year. Mr. Albanese last week played down reports a date for his visit had been agreed upon, saying he was waiting for an invitation.
Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University said “Ma will negotiate some specific issues with the Australian side in response to the consensus reached by the two countries’ leaders last year on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Bali, including paving the way and preparing for the future mutual visit of higher-level officials from China and Australia. As an independent country, Australia has the right and freedom to form an alliance. But China will never allow such an alliance to treat it as an ultimate enemy, or to harm China's interests. Albanese should have the wisdom to find the 'balance' between taking care of his Western alliances and stabilizing ties with Beijing.”
James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, said, “There can be no doubt it's significant. This is the highest-level Chinese official to visit Australia in more than six years. I think that that tells you quite a lot. The fact that the talks occurred at the level of senior officials, rather than political leaders, has significance because it's the officials that are tasked with the nuts and bolts of resolving some of the challenges."
The visit of Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu to Australia shows the willingness of both Australia and China to engage and mend their bilateral relations. For Australia China is its largest trading partner. While Australia is one of the key sources of raw materials for Chinese industry.
US House to Vote on Countering Untrusted Telecommunications Abroad Act to address potential Chinese Technology Threat
Susan Wildm a Democrat member of the United States House of Representatives from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district, introduced a bill Countering Untrusted Telecommunications Abroad Act. The bill is seen as a crackdown on Chinese telecommunication companies.
Susan Wild said, “We need to redouble our efforts to protect our national security and interests, help our allies take vital measures for their own security, and stand firmly in defence of fundamental rights.”
The SCMP Reports: The House of Representatives is set to vote next week on a bill to crack down on Chinese telecoms companies Huawei Technologies Co and ZTE that have been deemed security threats by the US government. The House said on Tuesday it will take up a bipartisan bill called the Countering Untrusted Telecommunications Abroad Act that would require the State Department to report on US NATO allies and others using telecoms equipment or services in their 5G networks from companies like Huawei and ZTE.
The report adds: The legislation would also require publicly traded companies to disclose whether they have contracted to use Huawei or ZTE or services covered under the bill. Huawei and ZTE did not immediately comment. The bill would also mandate a report on telecoms vulnerabilities in US embassies overseas, and direct the US State Department to identify key telecoms infrastructure projects to promote US national security. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in November banned approvals of new telecoms equipment from Huawei and ZTE, saying they pose “an unacceptable risk” to US national security. Last year, the Chinese embassy in Washington said the FCC “abused state power and maliciously attacked Chinese telecom operators again without factual basis”. Huawei has repeatedly denied allegations of wrongdoing and said the US government has “unlawfully and irrationally” targeted the company.
Ma Jihua, a telecom analystm said “With the new bill, the US wants to make sure that its allies will follow in its steps, especially after countries like France are insisting on Europe's strategic independence from the US. Some NATO allies are unlikely to cooperate with the US move, with Huawei remaining one of the most important suppliers of the 5G networks in Germany and many other European countries. The crackdown on Huawei is nefarious, and any switch to alternative equipment would significantly drive-up costs.”
The bill highlights the hardening of the stand by the US against China in the great tech war between the two countries. It shows the US's determination to curb Chinese companies' leadership in new and emerging technologies.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visits Uzbekistan
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang at the invitation of the acting Foreign Affairs Minister of Uzbekistan Bakhtiyor Saidov was on a state visit to Uzbekistan from April 12 to 13 to attend the fourth Foreign Minister’s meeting among the Neighbouring countries of Afghanistan in Samarkand.
The SCMP Reports: China will speed up strategic cooperation with Uzbekistan, focusing on new energy and infrastructure, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said in talks with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on Wednesday. Qin, who is on his first trip to Uzbekistan as a minister, called for work to start as soon as possible on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway project which will offer Beijing an alternative land route for Chinese goods to reach the Middle East and Europe. Construction on the railway, originally conceived in the mid-1990s, is expected to start this year after Beijing finally reached an agreement with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan last year.
The report adds: Referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Uzbekistan last year, Qin said China was willing to push bilateral relations between China and Uzbekistan to a new level. Uzbekistan represents a key hub for China’s natural gas supply, with the Central Asia-China pipeline running through the country and channelling up to 10 billion cubic metres (353 billion cubic feet) of natural gas to China per year. According to the Uzbek State statistics committee, China was the main destination for Uzbek exports last year. Qin said China was ready to work with Uzbekistan to jointly combat the “three forces” – terrorism, separatism and extremism – to safeguard the peace and stability of the two countries, and the region.
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said, “As a good friend standing shoulder to shoulder and a close and reliable partner, Uzbekistan is sincerely pleased with China's remarkable achievements. Last year, President Xi paid a successful historic visit to Uzbekistan, raising China-Uzbekistan relations to an unprecedented high level. Uzbekistan cherishes China's support for the construction of the "New Uzbekistan," and will continue to unswervingly abide by the one-China principle, and work together to build a community with a shared future for mankind.”
The visit of foreign minister Qin Gang to Uzbekistan shows China's desire to engage with its neighbours in Central Asia to help mitigate the volatility in the region through greater economic and strategic cooperation.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits China
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the invitation of Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang will be on an official visit to China from 13 to 15 April.
FirstPost Reports: Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has begun her three-day tour to China. Her visit comes at the time of increased Chinese military drills around Taiwan, which she condemned on Wednesday. The visit of the German foreign minister also comes amid the controversy surrounding French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on his way back from China last week. Before embarking for China, Baerbock said she would give utmost priority to discussion on the Ukraine war with Chinese officials.
She said that as a permanent member of the United Nation Security Council, China bears “special responsibility for world peace. What role China plays with its influence on Russia will have consequences for the whole of Europe and our relationship with China.”
The report adds: The German Foreign Minister will spend the first two days in the northern metropolis of Tianjin. She will be visiting a school with German ties after which she will head to a German-owned wind turbine factory. On Friday, she will hold talks with her Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang. The two are expected to take a high-speed train to Beijing, around 150 kilometres (93 miles) away. She will also meet Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng and Wang Yi.
The Global Times Reports: Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock began her three-day visit in North China's Tianjin on Thursday, as Europe is having a major debate in recent days on how to deal with China after French President Emmanuel Macron's call for Europe to reduce its reliance on the US drew ire from the US while winning support inside Europe. The German foreign minister's visit, which comes amid intensive China-EU interactions, signalled a major recalibration of China-EU high-level exchanges, and could pave the way for the further resumption of cooperation in politics, economy as well as people-to-people fields, some experts said. Given that Baerbock has long advocated a tough approach toward China, Chinese experts believe that it's unrealistic to expect the German official to have the same positive attitude toward China as Macron holds, but "it's important to have in-depth and face-to-face communication to help dispel some misunderstandings and find common ground, especially when China-Germany cooperation has a solid foundation in the business and trade fields." Just hours ahead of Baerbock's visit to China, German Foreign Ministry on Wednesday claimed China "had inflamed tensions with its military exercise around Taiwan island" and the German government appealed for efforts to reduce tensions across the Taiwan Straits, according to media reports. In a statement released ahead of the trip, Baerbock described China as a "competitor", "systemic rival" and "global player that increasingly wants to shape the world order according to its designs." Baerbock said Germany had no interest in economic decoupling from China, but would aim to "de-risk" by reducing its economic dependency, media reported.
Moscow-based political analyst Andrew Korybko said “Whereas Macron appeared to signal reluctance in complying with any US pressure that could affect his country’s ties with China in any scenario, specifically regarding a hot conflict over Taiwan, Baerbock represents a country that’s more likely to do whatever the US might demand of it”
The visit of Garman Foreign Minister exposes the faultlines in European Union's (EU) stand on China as leading EU members France and Germany have divergent approaches in engaging with China.
Section E: Military Developments in China
- Anushka Saxena
This week, the flavour of military developments related to China is Taiwan. To begin with, the eastern theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army successfully completed various tasks of the Taiwan Island combat readiness patrol and the "Joint Sword" exercise from April 8th to 10th, comprehensively testing the multi-service integrated joint combat capability of the army under actual combat conditions.
Following is an elaborate list of military operations conducted during the exercise, as highlighted by the Chinese Ministry of National Defense:
After the exercise began, under the unified command of the Eastern Theater Joint Operations Command Center, the theater army's remote tank fire, navy destroyer frigates, shore-guided assault groups, air force fighters, bombers, refueling aircraft, and the rocket army's regular fire units quickly moved to the battlefield. Mobile assembly in the predetermined area, deployment of operations.
The sea and air forces simultaneously organized a battle patrol around the island to create an all-round deterrent situation around the island.
Dozens of J-16 and J-10C fighter jets of the theater air force mounted live ammunition, and with the guidance and support of early warning aircraft, jammers, and refueling aircraft, they launched multiple waves of medium and long-range air combat confrontation. Various types of fighter planes are mixed and arranged flexibly, using methods such as interference and suppression, position blocking, etc., to quickly seek and destroy "enemy" air forces, and effectively seize and maintain air supremacy in the mission airspace.
The J-15 fighter aircraft aboard the Shandong carrier | Via Chinese MOD A number of destroyers and frigates of the Navy in the theater moved towards the waters around Taiwan Island at high speed, flexibly maneuvering to seize favorable positions, and organized short-range assaults, long-range deterrence, and air defense and anti-missile drills according to the situation on the spot. The ship formation and the anti-submarine patrol unit network build a chain to form a joint anti-submarine system, and fully seize the surface and underwater advantages of the mission sea area.
Several H-6K and H-6M fighter jets of the theater air force penetrated the defense at low altitudes under the cover of fighter jets, cooperated with far-box fire and conventional missiles, and used precision-guided munitions to simulate strikes on key targets on Taiwan Island.
The Navy's Shandong ship carrier formation, which is cruising east of Taiwan Island, is closely coordinating with the sea and air forces in the theater ahead, organizing regional air control, sea assaults, support and other subjects such as drills. The subordinate ships of the formation deployed at sea to perform air defense, anti-submarine and other tasks. The J-15 carrier-based aircraft took turns to take off, and quickly established an aircraft carrier formation combat system in the exercise sea area.
Over the past few days, under the unified command of the Eastern Theater Joint Operations Command Center, the participating troops have successfully completed various tasks of joint perception, joint accusation, joint killing, joint operations, and joint support.
As usual, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense reported activities of over 70 PLA aircraft and 10 PLAN vessels around the island on the days of the exercises, and close to 50 of these aircrafts crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s ADIZ.
These exercises have shown that China has immense capability to perform encirclement and blockade around Taiwan. Contrary to what some analysts are pointing out, this particular set of drills did not exactly encircle Taiwan completely. However, the sheer force of deployment and breadth of exercise, similar to what was witnessed during Pelosi’s visit to Taipei last year, indicated that China has amassed enough capability to block off Taiwan’s access to international aid by sea or air.
Then, on Monday (10 April), Russia released a statement supporting the Chinese aggression around Taiwan. TASS (Russian News Agency) reported:
“China has the right to conduct military exercises, including in response to numerous provocations over Taiwan, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.
"In a very short period of time we have witnessed many actions that were provocative toward the People's Republic of China. And, of course, China has the sovereign right to respond to these provocative actions in various ways, including by conducting military exercises in strict compliance with international law," Peskov said.
He stressed that ‘everyone should respect the right of China, as well as other countries, to act in this way’.”
This is an interesting show of support on Russia’s end, given that there is so much debate about China becoming a mediator of peace between Russia and Ukraine, and Macron, in his recent visit to Beijing, also encouraging China to do so. China’s stance on the war has pretty much reiterated the ideas of indivisible security and territorial integrity, but hasn’t recognised Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. Even though the joint statement released in the aftermath of the recent Xi-Putin meeting clearly affirms their efforts towards closer partnership in trade and defense, no deliberate show of support on Ukraine’s invasion has yet been offered by Chinese spokespersons. Perhaps, in that light, Russia’s vehement support for China’s military drills around Taiwan can be seen as the former’s way of urging the latter to reciprocate in the form of a firmer stance on R-U.
Then, there is some contradictory news coming from China and Taiwan on the imposition of a no-fly zone over the island.
Taiwan’s Transport Ministry said Beijing had initially notified Taipei it would impose a no-fly zone from April 16-18. Following Taiwan’s protest, China announced that the no-fly period was reduced to just 27 minutes on Sunday morning.
Guardian reports that according to Reuters, a senior Chinese official with direct knowledge of the matter said the flight ban would have a significant impact on air traffic, affecting 60-70% of flights between north-east and south-east Asia, as well as flights between Taiwan and South Korea, Japan and North America.
VOA reported: “Lieutenant General Yan Youxian, Deputy Chief of Intelligence of Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, said on Wednesday that the no-fly zone established by the Chinese government is about 85 nautical miles north of Taiwan. Taiwan's Minister of Transportation Wang Guocai also said that the relevant airspace will be closed for 27 minutes on Sunday morning, 33 flights will be affected and the routes will need to be adjusted.”
However, on 14 April, in a statement during his regular media briefing, Chinese Foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin clarified: “China’s civil aviation authorities and relevant maritime authorities have both issued announcements. According to what we have learned from competent authorities, as is customary practice, civil aviation authorities notify the public in advance of the airspace that may be affected by space activities. This is aimed to alert relevant air traffic service departments and airspace users to possible impacts of such space activities. This is a responsible action to ensure aviation safety. The latest notices and announcements issued for the space activities identified the area that may be affected. I noted some earlier reports which said that China has set up a no-fly zone. This is not accurate. Relevant air traffic service departments have a responsibility to take measures accordingly to ensure flight safety.”
The statement by “competent authorities” Wang is referring to is that on Thursday (13 April), China’s maritime safety agency said potential rocket debris would fall into the East China Sea on April 16 in the morning or early afternoon, and banned shipping vessels from the area. Taiwan has also issued a notice to airmen for pilots for Sunday morning that uses the wording “airspace blocked due to aerospace flight activity.”
Moreover, VOA report also adds: "As usual, the relevant parties in the mainland have released notices and announcements in advance of space activities affecting the airspace, aiming to remind the relevant air traffic service departments and airspace users of the impact of activities, which is a responsible practice to ensure flight safety," said the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council in Beijing. Zhu Fenglian said when asked about this issue at a press conference held on Friday. "The DPP [Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party] authorities distort the facts and deceive public opinion for their own selfishness, in an attempt to escalate cross-strait confrontation. Such political tricks will not succeed," Zhu Fenglian said.
Finally, on the issue of China’s show of force toward Taiwan, Wion reported: “A senior Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) air force commander, who was arrested by the Chinese Communist Party, received a death sentence for "serious economic corruption".
The air force commander, General Liu Yazhou, has expressed disagreements in past about China's policy of military belligerence around Taiwan, said a report in Ming Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper known for reporting on Chinese Communist Party.”
It adds: Ming Pao has a mixed track record when it comes to the veracity of the information it cites. But this must be seen with respect to the disinformation spread by the CCP elements as part of their information warfare.
Earlier, in February 2022, writer Bi Ruxie, who lives in the United States, said that Liu could be given a heavy sentence based on his opposition to Xi.
According to Bi, who cited information from party insiders, Liu Yazhou had been criticized by Xi in a 40-minute secret speech; Xi supposedly said that Liu was not only guilty of "economic problems" but also spearheaded factionalism within CCP to cater to his leadership ambitions.
According to Bi, "Party princelings do not believe that Liu had established [factional] strongholds. The princelings noted that early reports of the investigation into Liu only found him to have ‘economic problems,’ engaged in promiscuous relations, and offended Xi Jinping with ‘a lot of strange political talk," SinoInsider reported.
Next, on 12 April 2023, the PRC State Council and the Central Military Commission promulgated and published the revised "Regulations on Conscription Work" in the military.
The revisions were first drafted on 1 April 2023, and are meant to come into force on May 1, 2023.
These ‘Regulations’ have attracted a lot of attention because this is the first time since September 2001 that these ‘Regulations’ have been amended, and now carry a stronger focus on the following, as per the responses to media questions by various leaders of the CMC:
This revision focuses on the needs of a strong army, combined with work practice, and strives to form a conscription work regulation that reflects the characteristics of the times and is easy to implement.
It mainly grasps four principles:
First, strengthen political leadership. Adhere to the guidance of Chairman Xi's series of important instructions on military service and conscription work, uphold the party's leadership over conscription work, and ensure the correct direction of conscription work.
The second is to focus on strengthening the army and preparing for war. Thoroughly implement Xi Jinping's thinking on strengthening the army, implement the new era of military strategic guidelines, adhere to the standards of combat effectiveness, aim at serving the troops in preparation for war, focus on improving the quality of recruiting soldiers, and focus on the integrated design of peacetime recruiting reserves and wartime mobilization.
The third is to focus on system design. Closely integrate into the overall process of military policy system reform, do a good job in the connection and alignment of relevant laws and regulations, accurately grasp the granularity of legislation, carry out systematic design and overall optimization of the entire process of conscription work, and focus on establishing procedural norms, clear responsibilities and powers, and transition between peacetime and wartime. Fast and efficient new era conscription work system.
The fourth is to promote innovation and development. Actively adapt to the modernization requirements of the national governance system and governance capabilities, closely follow the process of the country's rule of law, fully rely on the achievements of modern mobile Internet and national e-government construction, improve the methods and means of conscription work, and promote the transformation and upgrading of conscription work.
On the nature of candidates to be now focused on during selection, the interviewee leaders clarify: “The newly revised "Regulations" emphasizes the recruitment of high-quality soldiers, insists on focusing on college students, and clearly guarantees that college graduates and soldiers with special requirements for political, physical conditions or professional skills are recruited; it is stipulated that colleges and universities can be directly assigned Conscription tasks, and establish a coordinating mechanism for college students and soldiers with special requirements for conscription tasks; clarify that college students and fresh graduates can apply for recruitment at the place of household registration before enrollment or the location of the school.”
Additionally: “In order to meet the talent needs of key positions in the main battle of the army, it is clear that retired soldiers who voluntarily apply for recruitment and meet the conditions can be approved to re-enlist, and they will be assigned to the original active service units or similar positions for active service; those who meet the conditions for serving as sergeants can be directly recruited as a sergeant.”
But perhaps the amendment that analysts and the media are viewing most controversial is the addition of a Chapter on ‘wartime’ (Chapter IX). Many see this addition as timely in the slew of aggressive responses Tsai’s visit to the US invoked from Beijing.
The Chapter serves the following persons, as per the abovementioned interviewee leaders of the CMC:
In order to ensure the normal replacement of troops and the supplementary needs of soldiers in wartime, the "Regulations" refer to the common practice of various countries, inherit laws and regulations such as the National Defense Law and the Military Service Law, and set up a special chapter to regulate the issue of wartime recruitment.
It is clear that after the state issues a mobilization order or the State Council and the Central Military Commission take national defense mobilization measures in accordance with the law, people's governments at all levels and military agencies must organize wartime recruitment as required.
In times of war, the State Council and the Central Military Commission may, within the scope prescribed by law, adjust the conditions and methods for enlisting citizens for active service according to needs during wartime. They may focus on enlisting retired soldiers who are proficient in military skills and supplement them to the original active service units or similar posts to ensure rapid Form combat power.
At the same time, in order to ensure that the soldiers enlisted in wartime are replenished quickly and on time, the units and individuals engaged in transportation should be given priority in transporting wartime enlisted objects; other organizations and individuals should facilitate the registration of wartime enlisted objects.
This is the first time the ‘Regulations’ have featured a chapter on wartime efforts, and CMC officials have so elaborately discussed the significance of the combat preparedness criteria across personnel recruitment, training and transport, and political loyalty.
Finally, China successfully conducted a land-based, mid-course antiballistic missile (ABM) technical test on Friday (14 April), marking China's seventh publicly announced land-based ABM test since 2010.
Global Times reported: The country has mastered related technologies, forming a credible deterrent against nuclear threats, analysts said. Before Friday, China had conducted six land-based ABM tests, in 2010, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2021 and 2022. It was not revealed in which interception phase the test in 2014 was carried out, while all the other five were carried out in the mid-course phase.
The Hindu reported: Such systems, which consist of ground-based interceptor missiles and a huge array of radars and fire control systems, aim to bring down ballistic missiles, including ICBMs carrying nuclear or other warheads, while they are flying in space midcourse on the way to their targets.
It added: Referred to by the U.S. as ground-based mid-course defense, or GMD, such systems are hugely complex and expensive to build, test and maintain, and China’s capabilities in the field are not well known.
Sources also mentioned that while mid-course ABM interception is very technically challenging because the missile is moving at very high speed and at very high altitudes, it is the most viable option, because it is more unlikely to intercept a ballistic missile in the initial phase deep within hostile territory. Also, intercepting a diving missile in the terminal phase - not to mention multiple missiles in a saturation attack - is just too risky.
These reports come in the backdrop of a leak of critical intelligence documents from the US Pentagon in the past few weeks, of which, one of the documents shows China boosting its hypersonic missile program.
New York Post reported: Top-secret documents leaked online in recent weeks reveal China has deployed an intermediate-range hypersonic missile that can hit targets thousands of miles away and has a “high probability” of penetrating US defenses, according to a report.
Among the documents was a top-secret report from 28 February 2023, compiled by the Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence directorate, that detailed China’s successful test launch of an advanced intermediate-range DF-27 hypersonic glide missile a few days earlier, the Washington Post reported.
The WaPo report adds: The intermediate-range ballistic missile flew for 12 minutes and traveled 2,100 kilometers (1,300 miles), the leaked document revealed. But according to a 2021 Defense Department report, the DF-27 has a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers, meaning that it can strike any target in East or Southeast Asia and large parts of the Pacific, including Guam. In addition to its added range, the new missile has a “hypersonic glide” capability, which means it can be maneuvered to evade American and allied missile defenses and is a greater potential “carrier killer” than its predecessors were.
Apparently, reports are also suggesting that military planners in Washington have realized that China has moved beyond the US in hypersonic missile technology, and while the US has its own hypersonic weapons, it “lacks sufficient means to defend against the ones China is already fielding.” But the viability of this assessment remains to be evaluated.
To read more on developments concerning Chinese military forces, please refer to :
Interesting reports by Times Now and Indian Defense News on the PLA Air Force placing various fighter jets and helicopters in Tibet
Spacebattles (a more informal channel for public discussions)
Eye on China is a weekly newsletter curated by the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at The Takshashila Institution, a public policy think-tank based out of Bengaluru, India.
Contributors :
India-China Relations: Anushka Saxena
Chinese Domestic Politics: Amit Kumar
Economy and Tech: Amit Kumar
Foreign Policy Watch: Kingshuk Saha
Military Developments in China: Anushka Saxena