India's Ukraine War Discussion - Chinese Cyberattacks - Shanghai Lockdown - Financial Stability Law - Wang Yi's Diplomacy - Borrell on China's pro-Russia Stance - The Putin Documentary - Afghanistan

Apr 10, 2022

I. Indian Parliament Discusses Ukraine War

This week, the UNGA voted to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. This came amid outrage related to the reported killings of civilians in Bucha. Let me spend a moment on this before getting to the Indian parliament’s discussion.

Prior to the vote, Reuters reported that “Russia has warned countries at the United Nations that a yes vote or abstention on a US push to suspend Moscow from the Human Rights Council will be viewed as an “unfriendly gesture” with consequences for bilateral ties.” China opposed the resolution, while India abstained. It’s also worth reading the explanations offered by both sides for their votes. The Indian explanation of its vote is brief. It basically reiterates some points made by Foreign Minister Jaishankar in Parliament this week and says that India is abstaining “for reasons of both substance and process.” In contrast, the Chinese explanation is much more detailed. It touches on many areas, but essentially says that the resolution was:

“not drafted in an open and transparent manner, nor did it follow the tradition of holding consultations within the whole membership to heed the broadest opinions. Under such circumstances, such a hasty move at the General Assembly, which forces countries to choose sides, will aggravate the division among Member States and intensify the contradictions between the parties concerned. It is like adding fuel to the fire, which is not conducive to the de-escalation of conflicts, and even less so to advancing the peace talks.”

Later the Chinese foreign ministry called Russia’s expulsion as “a new and dangerous precedent” that will “further intensify confrontations, bring a greater impact on the UN governance system, and produce serious consequences.”

Anyway, now to the Indian parliament’s discussion. On April 5, the Lok Sabha discussed the Ukraine war. In a special post in my People’s Daily Tracker, I summarised the comments by 13 MPs and Minister Jaishankar’s response. I am sharing my takeaways from the discussion below, but you can check out the full post here.

The language is not as harsh as what we’ve heard in Europe or the US — some MPs were more blunt than others — but there is clear unhappiness with the Russian invasion. At the same time, some MPs did talk about the complex history of developments of the past 30 years between NATO and Russia.
While there is a sense of appreciation for the historic relationship with Russia, there is significant concern about the deepening Moscow-Beijing partnership. Many MPs pointed to the difficulties that this relationship will pose for India in the future. In my reading, this is the first such serious public conversation regarding the China-Russia relationship presenting a strategic challenge for India that I have noted.
Most MPs seemed to argue that we are entering a new divided world order, which will present new challenges for Indian foreign policy. There is a clear desire for India to maintain a non-aligned position and retain its strategic autonomy. But if one reads between the lines, there’s also an understanding that Indian policy has structurally shifted towards a closer partnership with the West over time. Importantly, no one in their comments was critical of this shift.
Most MPs were rather clear that China presents the biggest strategic and security threat for India.
There is tremendous sensitivity to public hectoring by others seeking to influence Indian policy. To me, the language of interests will clearly be far more useful than moral posturing in this sense. Public admonishment is a self-defeating approach to be honest.
Finally, there were calls from many MPs for a more proactive Indian policy, potentially even attempts at mediation. I thought Minister Jaishankar’s comments about the engagement with Sergei Lavrov was interesting in this regard. He said that India encourages talks between Ukraine and Russia, including at the level of presidents, and this was conveyed to Lavrov. But Jaishankar did not elaborate on any significant mediation intention or effort from India.

II. India-China Ties

Let’s begin with a report in the Indian Express today about a proposal that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had apparently come with. The report says:

“Around the time Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited India last month, Beijing sent Delhi a proposal on disengagement of troops from Patrolling Point 15 in the Hot Springs area of eastern Ladakh. The proposal was rejected by India. Government sources said China proposed that Indian troops, who have been in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Chinese troops at PP 15 for almost two years now, move back to the Karam Singh Post between PP 16 and PP 17. China said it would withdraw its troops just behind the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as claimed by India in that region. Sources said this was unacceptable to India since the Chinese claim line and India’s understanding of the LAC almost intersect at PP 15. If India were to accept the proposal, it would mean that while Chinese troops would move back very little, Indian troops would have to withdraw several kilometres behind.”

We are rapidly approaching the two-year-mark with regard to the standoff in Ladakh, and a lot of friction points remain to be addressed. There have been 14 rounds of Corps Commander-level talks. The last of these was held on January 12. Friction points remain at Hot Springs (PP15). The PLA is still actively blocking the Indian patrols around 18 km inside what India considers its own territory at approach roads to strategically located Depsang Plains at PP 10,11,12,12A and 13. Similarly, at Demchock, the two sides have not come to any resolution at the Charding Ninglung nullah.

In addition, this week there were reports of Chinese state-sponsored cyberattacks targeting India’s power sector. Bloomberg’s report based on a report by Recorded Future Inc says that:

“the hackers focused on at least seven ‘load dispatch’ centers in northern India that are responsible for carrying out real-time operations for grid control and electricity dispersal in the areas they are located, near the disputed India-China border in Ladakh... One of the load dispatch centers previously was the target of another hacking group, RedEcho, which Recorded Future has said shares ‘strong overlaps’ with a hacking group that the U.S. has tied to the Chinese government. ‘The prolonged targeting of Indian power grid assets by Chinese state-linked groups offers limited economic espionage or traditional intelligence gathering opportunities,’ the Recorded Future report states. ‘We believe this is instead likely intended to enable information gathering surrounding critical infrastructure and/or pre-positioning for future activity.’ In addition, the hackers compromised an Indian national emergency response system and a subsidiary of a multinational logistics company, according to the report. The hacking group, dubbed TAG-38, has used a kind of malicious software called ShadowPad, which was previously associated with China’s People’s Liberation Army and the Ministry of State Security, according to Recorded Future. Researchers didn’t identify the victims by name.”

Here’s an excerpt from the original report by by Recorded Future:

In February 2021, Recorded Future’s Insikt Group reported on intrusion activity targeting operational assets within India’s power grid that we attributed to a likely Chinese state-sponsored threat activity group we track as RedEcho. Following a short lull after the publication of our RedEcho reporting, we have detected ongoing targeting of Indian power grid organizations by China-linked adversaries, frequently using the privately shared modular backdoor ShadowPad. ShadowPad continues to be employed by an ever-increasing number of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Ministry of State Security (MSS)-linked groups, with its origins linked to known MSS contractors first using the tool in their own operations and later likely acting as a digital quartermaster. In recent months, we observed likely network intrusions targeting at least 7 Indian State Load Despatch Centres (SLDCs) responsible for carrying out real-time operations for grid control and electricity dispatch within these respective states. Notably, this targeting has been geographically concentrated, with the identified SLDCs located in North India, in proximity to the disputed India-China border in Ladakh. One of these SLDCs was also targeted in previous RedEcho activity. This latest set of intrusions, however, is composed of an almost entirely different set of victim organizations. In addition to the targeting of power grid assets, we also identified the compromise of a national emergency response system and the Indian subsidiary of a multinational logistics company by the same threat activity group. To achieve this, the group likely compromised and coopted internet-facing DVR/IP camera devices for command and control (C2) of Shadowpad malware infections, as well as use of the open source tool FastReverseProxy (FRP).

It’s interesting that India’s power minister RK Singh has acknowledged that there were attempts by the Chinese side to target the Indian power grid in Ladakh thrice since December 2021. He said that these attacks did not succeed. The New Indian Express reports Singh as saying:

“Our defence against cyber attack is strong. These were probing attacks in December, January and February. They did not succeed. But we are aware.” The minister also said action was taken way back in 2018 against suspected cyber attacks on the country's power supply system. “We had put protocols in place. Those protocols are working and we are strengthening those protocols every day. So, our cyber defence against cyber attack is strong. We are confident about that.”

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was asked about the report during its daily press briefing this week. Here’s what Zhao Lijian said:

“We will never encourage, support or condone cyber attacks. Given the virtual nature of cyberspace and the fact that there are all kinds of online actors who are difficult to trace, it’s important to have complete and sufficient evidence when investigating and identifying cyber-related incidents. One should be all the more prudent when associating cyberattacks with the government of a certain country. As is known to all, the US is the world’s largest source of cyber attacks and "hacking empire". A piece of advice to the relevant company that you just mentioned: if they really care about global cyber security, they should pay more attention to the cyber attacks by the US government-sponsored hackers on China and other countries, and do more to promote dialogue and cooperation among countries, rather than sow discord and sling mud at China under the pretext of cyberattack issues.” —
(Quick thought: This response is a small but classic example of Beijing’s view of the world passing through a prism called Washington DC. The question was specifically about the reports about attacks on India’s power sector. Zhao’s response is basically to attack the US.)

Anyway, in its briefing, the Indian MEA said that the issue had not been formally raised with Beijing. Also it’s worth noting that this isn’t the first such report about the targeting of power grids in India. In March 2021, reports informed of malware undermining Mumbai’s power grid.

Some other reports to note. First, China continues to hold its sway over India’s bulk drugs and drug intermediaries market, accounting 66.48 per cent i.e. Rs 17,610 crore of the total Rs 26,490 crore imports executed in the first nine months of the fiscal 2021-22. According to data from the Union Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers, last year when India’s pharma sector reported nearly 10 per cent growth, the imports of bulk drugs from China also reported a significant growth in terms of actual numbers, while in percentage of overall imports it remained the same.

Second, Union Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai told Parliament this week that the Union government had allocated six times more funds for the development of infrastructure along the India-China border in Arunachal Pradesh – from Rs 42.87 crore in 2020-21 to Rs 249.12 crore in 2021-22. He added that Rs 602.30 crore has been allocated in 2021-22 and Rs 355.12 crore in 2020-21 under the border infrastructure and management (BIM) scheme to improve infrastructure along the international border in the Northeast – with China, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

Third, a Tibetan delegation met with Indian parliamentarians this week. The delegation led by Dolma Tsering Teykhang, deputy speaker of the Tibetan parliament-in-exile, and comprising parliamentarians Tenpa Yarphel, Khenpo Kada Ngedup Sonam and Phurpa Dorjee Gyaldhong has met 38 MPs of different parties and Union law minister Kiren Rijiju since Monday.

Teykhang said that “Till the Tibet conflict with China is resolved, it is our prime duty as members of parliament to reach out to Indian parliamentarians to appraise them about the serious condition of human rights violations in Tibet, and how culture and religion are being targeted in Tibet…And the second thing that we were appraising them about is that if you want to secure border peace in Arunachal Pradesh, Galwan Valley or other places, you need to urge China to come to the table for dialogue with representatives of [the Dalai Lama].” The discussions also covered China’s “hydro-hegemony,” i.e., its control of waters of cross-border rivers such as the Brahmaputra.

Also Read:

III. Shanghai Covid Outbreak

by Swayamsiddha Samal

Shanghai, China’s financial centre, declared a record 21,000 cases on Friday. According to an official, just one individual was in a "serious state" out of 130,000 illnesses during the current pandemic.

Shanghai citizens have gone to social media to express their dissatisfaction with food shortages. People in the city are restricted to their houses, and the majority must order food and water from restaurants and rely on government deliveries of vegetables, meat, and eggs. However, the expansion of the lockdown has suffocated delivery services, food store websites, and even the provision of government supplies.

Shanghai has erected over 100 temporary hospitals with over 160,000 beds for COVID-19 treatment, according to a news conference held on Saturday by the Shanghai city government. According to authorities, there are eight authorised hospitals in Shanghai with over 8,000 beds, and more will open this weekend. According to Zong Ming, vice mayor of Shanghai, resources will be moved to and reserved in designated hospitals and temporary hospitals.

According to Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, millions of people in Shanghai were running low on supplies, and many were limited to eating only one meal each day. He cautioned that the elderly Shanghainese, who in all probability lived alone and far less likely to use cellphones were particularly vulnerable.

As reported by Xinhua, Jiangsu will prepare a total of 30,000 quarantine rooms to assist the city in its fight against COVID-19 comeback. To provide mental health services, one or two designated professionals would be posted at each quarantine site, and free psychological aid services hotlines will be available 24 hours a day. Another adjacent province, Zhejiang, will also supply 30,000 rooms for individuals moved from Shanghai.

In yet another report by Xinhua, it is being said that China would continue to adhere to the ‘Zero Covid strategy’ as the method has proved scientific and has been shown to be efficient in limiting clusters of illnesses within a few weeks in places like as Nanjing, Tianjin, and Xi'an.

After 33 days of lockdown, officials in north-eastern Jilin City declared the city to have attained "Social Zero Covid." However, there has been no indication of when the limits would be eased. In a commentary by Guancha, due to poor performance in epidemic prevention and control, eleven party members, cadres, and public officials in Jilin City were expelled. Jilin has adopted the "Four Responsibilities and Four Practices" for better implementation of epidemic prevention plans. Zhang Liye, a member of the party group and deputy director of the Jilin Municipal Health Commission, and Bao Huaidong, director of the city's Second People's Hospital, were among the 11 expelled for failing to perform their duties in epidemic prevention and control, resulting in nosocomial infections. Similar incidents of expulsion of party members who did not perform their jobs properly have come up.

Meanwhile, defending his country's stringent zero-COVID policy in the face of a massive surge in coronavirus cases in Shanghai and other cities, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Friday that China's targeted and effective COVID-19 prevention and control measures ensured the safe and smooth hosting of the Winter Olympics. In an address to a gathering honouring those who have made outstanding contributions to the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games and Paralympic Winter Games, he asserted that China's anti-COVID policy has once again stood the test of time, providing useful experience for the world in fighting the virus and hosting major international events.

IV. Economic Woes

Several reports this week informed of the increasing economic stability challenges that Beijing faces amid the war in Ukraine and the current COVID-19 outbreak in the country. The Covid outbreak, in particular, has hurt manufacturing activity.

The weekly State Council meeting said that:

“The meeting noted that major economic indicators are generally within an appropriate range, yet both the domestic and external environments are faced with growing complexities and uncertainties, some of which are beyond expectations. The recovery of the world economy remains sluggish. The global commodities markets, including those of food and energy, are experiencing major fluctuations. COVID-19 cases are flaring up across the country. Market entities are facing mounting difficulties. Economic circulation is held back by certain constraints. All these are posing new and greater downward pressure on economic activity. It is imperative to remain confident and, at the same time, take seriously and stay alert to new problems and new challenges.”

And then this: “Keeping major economic indicators within an appropriate range is mainly about ensuring the overall stability of employment and prices. Greater efforts will be made to maintain job security by keeping the operations of market entities stable. Multi-pronged measures will be adopted to ensure unimpeded logistics services, stability of industrial and supply chains, and food and energy security.”

“The meeting urged greater efforts to implement the prudent monetary policy to keep liquidity reasonably sufficient. Re-lending for agricultural and small enterprises will be increased, and instruments to support inclusive loans to micro and small businesses will be harnessed to expand the volume and coverage of financing for micro, small and medium enterprises while lowering costs. ‘Over the past years, we refrained from flooding the economy with mass stimulus. We must explore every possible means to anchor expectations and boost consumption and investment. This cannot be done in the absence of financial support. More market-based approaches should be employed. Relying solely on public finance is unsustainable,’ Premier Li said. Policies on providing financial support for consumption and effective investment will be explored. Financial services for new urban residents will be enhanced, and those for government-subsidized housing improved. Financing needs of key projects will be met as a matter of priority. Efforts will be made toward a fairly rapid increase in medium- and long-term loans to manufacturers. Financing in key sectors and areas of weakness will be supported. Targeted re-lending arrangements for technological innovation and elderly-care services will be set up, and the People's Bank of China will provide re-lending support for 60 percent and 100 percent of the loan principals respectively.”

In addition, WSJ reports that:

“Foreign investors cut their holdings of Chinese bonds by more than $15 billion in March, in a record monthly retreat from the world’s second-largest bond market. The selldown probably had several triggers, including concerns about the geopolitical risks of investing in China, broader economic uncertainty and the market’s diminishing yield advantage compared with U.S. bonds, analysts said. Last month, global investors also withdrew more than $7 billion from onshore Chinese stocks through a trading link with Hong Kong. Some international fund managers are concerned about holding Chinese assets following the harsh economic sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, said Zhaopeng Xing, a senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. In addition, Mr. Xing said Russia’s central bank was likely shedding Chinese bondholdings to raise cash and repay foreign debts, since its U.S., Japanese and European assets are effectively frozen. They also unloaded other kinds of yuan bonds, including the equivalent of about $6.2 billion of bonds issued by important state-owned lenders known as policy banks. It was the second straight month of overall outflows from the market. The retreat is small compared with foreign investors’ total holdings of Chinese debt, which run to the equivalent of $561 billion. Still, the exodus is notable since Chinese assets avoided major outflows in previous episodes of market stress, including the first shock provoked by Covid-19 and the trade war with the U.S., said Jonathan Fortun, an economist at the Institute of International Finance. Data collected by the institute shows heavy outflows have continued in early April, he said.”

In terms of China’s real estate market, Jacky Wong’s report in WSJ says that

“More local governments in China are rolling out policies to revive the sluggish housing market, including easing purchase restrictions and cutting down-payment ratios. More monetary easing is likely on the way too. Fundraising for developers has become easier, but mostly for the large state-owned variety—many private-sector developers are still struggling. But so far the housing market remains in the doldrums. Housing sales for the top 100 developers fell 53% year on year in March, according to China Real Estate Information Corp. Covid-19 lockdowns in many cities including Shanghai are adding to the market’s woes.”

Meanwhile, a Global Times report notes that two more “Chinese cities have announced the lifting of home purchase restrictions at the start of April, sending the total number of domestic cities that have eased such policies to boost the housing market to more than 60 so far this year.” It adds that “Chinese authorities have unveiled a series of measures to stabilize the property market since the beginning of this year, including giving developers easier access to presale funds held in escrow, reducing down payment ratios for first-time home buyers, and allowing commercial banks to lower mortgage rates.”

Finally, the PBoC made public a draft financial stability law this week. The law aims to further strengthen safety nets to prevent systemic financial risks. According to Reuters, “China will establish a financial stability protection fund to beef up its ability to cope with major financial risks, and set up a comprehensive cross-agency mechanism for risk detection and disposal, the central bank said.” The report adds:

“China’s financial stability fund, to be used to tackle major systemic risks, would be financed by the country’s financial institutions and financial infrastructure operators. The PBOC can also provide liquidity support to the fund when needed, according to the draft law. But financial institutions and their major shareholders must rescue themselves first, before seeking external help, so as to minimise reliance on public money, the PBOC said. Meanwhile, the risk-disposal mechanism, to be headed by the finance committee of China’s State Council, or cabinet, puts more onus on financial institutions, local governments, and financial regulators to head off financial risks. Mismanagement at financial institutions, and misuse of capital by their shareholders contributed largely to financial risks in the past, the PBOC said.”

Also Read:

V. Wang Yi’s Diplomacy

There were some really interesting conversations that the Chinese foreign minister had with counterparts from Ukraine, Canada, the Philippines and Israel this week along with a chat with the French president’s diplomatic counselor, Emmanuel Bonne. I thought I’d do a quick recap of the reports around these conversations. These are useful in that they underscore how America-focussed the Chinese leadership’s worldview and diplomacy has become.

First, the Chinese readout of the conversation between Wang Yi and Teodoro Locsin has Wang saying that “President Rodrigo Duterte has firmly pursued a friendly policy towards China and brought China-Philippines relations out of the trough and onto the right track…I hope and believe that this right policy will be carried on…The two sides should eliminate interference, and calmly and properly manage differences, so as to prevent the overall China-Philippines relations from being affected. China is ready to work with the Philippines to advance the construction of key infrastructure projects at a faster pace, so as to help the Philippines achieve more results in the ‘Build, Build, Build’ program.”

Second, Xinhua’s report on Wang’s chat with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, has him saying:

“It is China's historical and cultural tradition as well as its consistent foreign policy to safeguard peace and oppose war…On the Ukraine issue, China does not seek geopolitical interests, nor will it watch the event from a safe distance while sitting idle, or add fuel to the fire, Wang said, stressing that the only thing that China wants is peace in Ukraine. China welcomes peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Wang said, adding that no matter how difficult the talks would be and what differences they would have, the general direction of peace talks should be held until a ceasefire and eventual peace are achieved. Wang said the conflict will eventually come to an end, and what is important is to think over the past misery and preserve sustainable security in Europe. China believes that the principle of indivisible security should be adhered to, and a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture should be built upon dialogue on an equal footing, Wang said, adding that based on its objective and impartial position, China is willing to continue to play a constructive role in its own way. Wang said he believes that Ukraine is capable of making choices that are in the fundamental interest of the people of the country.”

Third, the Xinhua report on the conversation with Bonne saw Wang Yi doubling down on the need for Europe to adopt an independent position amid the Ukraine war

“The two sides exchanged views mainly on the Ukraine issue. Bonne said that France has always adhered to an independent foreign policy and will not fall into the logic of bloc politics. France has always been committed to creating and maintaining peace, and is communicating with various parties including Russia on major issues such as Ukraine's achieving neutrality and obtaining security guarantees, he added. France attaches great importance to China's views on the current situation, and is ready to make joint efforts with China to promote peace talks, realize a ceasefire and resolve the crisis, said Bonne.”

Wang said that Xi had spoken to Macron in the past and “comprehensively expounded China's principled position on the Ukraine issue.”

“China also looks forward to an early ceasefire and the restoration of peace, and has been making unremitting efforts to this end in its own way, he added. At the same time, China believes that all parties should work to create the necessary environment and conditions for advancing peace talks, facilitating peace and negotiations instead of fanning flames, he said. One cannot call for ceasefire and cessation of war while sending large quantities of advanced weapons and equipment to further escalate the war, and likewise, one can not claim to support dialogue and peace talks while at the same time unscrupulously imposing unilateral sanctions and provoking further escalation of tensions, Wang said. Noting that the Ukraine issue has its roots in Europe’s security imbalance, Wang said that the principle of indivisible security should be adhered to, and a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework should be rebuilt. Only by doing so can Europe truly achieve lasting peace and stability, he added. Wang also said that China supports the French side in upholding Europe’s strategic autonomy and letting the European people take the continent's destiny into their own hands, adding China appreciates France's nonrecognition of the logic of bloc politics, and meanwhile believes the Cold War mentality should not be allowed to resurge. Humankind has entered the 21st century, in which the interests of all countries are intertwined and interdependent, Wang pointed out, noting China stands ready to work with France to strengthen strategic cooperation and jointly build a community with a shared future for mankind. Both sides are deeply concerned about the spillover effects of the Ukraine crisis.”

Fourth, Xinhua’s report on the call between Wang and his Canadian counterpart says:

“During their conversation, Wang said that the people of China and Canada have enjoyed long-term friendly exchanges, noting that Canada is one of the first Western countries to establish diplomatic ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC). However, in recent years, China-Canada relations have suffered a serious setback due to the Meng Wanzhou case, which is something we do not want to see, Wang said. The essence of this case lies in the U.S. suppression over Chinese high-tech enterprises by coercion, a shameful behavior that everyone could see clearly, Wang said. No country should act as a facilitator of such unilateral bullying, and any country targeted by the U.S. approach has the right to make necessary responses, he added. Noting that China always views and handles China-Canada relations from a strategic and long-term perspective, Wang said the current situation of bilateral relations is not in the interests of both countries, calling on Canada to face up to the problems and cooperate with China. He further put forward three proposals in this regard.”

Canada should view China objectively and maintain a steady and pragmatic China policy…China and Canada have no historical disputes or real conflict of interest. China hopes that Canada, in spirit of mutual benefit and win-win, will do more to enhance mutual trust and promote bilateral relations.
The two countries should respect each other's core interests and not create new obstacles to the development of bilateral relations. The one-China principle is the political foundation of China-Canada relations, Wang said, adding that if the Taiwan question is not handled properly, China-Canada relations will suffer fundamental damage.
Canada should uphold its independence and eliminate unnecessary external interference.

Finally, the Xinhua readout of the chat between Wang and Israel’ Yair Lapid informs:

Wang said that China appreciates Israel’s adherence to the one-China policy and understanding of China's legitimate propositions in safeguarding its core interests. He added that China believes Israel will continue to support China's efforts to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests.
The two sides agreed to speed up the negotiation and signing of a free trade agreement.
“Wang said China is glad to see Israel establish and develop normal friendly relations with countries in the region, which should be part of the overall reconciliation in the Middle East (essentially an endorsement of the Abraham Accords). The prolonged stagnation of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is not in the interests of all parties. Palestine also has the legitimate right to establish an independent state.”
On the Israel-Palestine issue, Wang added that “China supports all efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East and is willing to facilitate direct negotiations between the two sides.”
“The two sides also exchanged views on the Ukraine issue. Wang briefed Lapid on China’s principled position, saying that all parties now hope to realize a ceasefire and restore peace. But for a cease-fire, there can be no more moves that add fuel to the flame; for peace, there should be no extreme pressure. Dialogue and negotiation should be the right direction supported by all parties.”

Along with all this, do note the following. While the Chinese foreign ministry has been saying that the recent China-EU summit a “very successful meeting,” the message from Europe appears to be very different. For instance, here’s Josep Borrell’s recent blog post:

“For Europeans this is a clear-cut case of aggression: Russia has inexcusably violated its smaller neighbour’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. These are principles that are supposedly sacrosanct in Chinese diplomacy. However, in practice, Beijing’s attitude has been one of pro-Russian neutrality. China does not condone Russia’s behaviour – it abstained in the UN General Assembly votes – but it does support Russia’s justifications of the war, i.e. the claim that the root causes lie in ‘Cold War thinking’ and especially NATO enlargement. China does not use the term war, preferring euphemisms like issue, crisis or conflict. It rejects the use of sanctions. And it likes to apportion equal blame rather than call out Russian aggression, pleading for ‘all sides’ to find an end to the bloodshed…Through their statements and actions, Russia and China have made clear that they believe that great powers are entitled to a zone of influence in their respective neighbourhoods. We instead believe that the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act enshrine the right to of countries to make their own, sovereign choices. The joint Russia-China statement of 4 February is, at heart, a revisionist manifesto as I said at the Munich Security Conference on 20 February 2022. We see the war against Ukraine as a moment of truth where countries have to show their colours, but China feels it can avoid fateful choices. As things stand, it believes it gets a West that is focused on Ukraine and a weak Russia that is making China even more the senior partner with cheap oil and gas on offer, as Europe reduces its energy imports from Russia.”

“The EU side made clear that this is not feasible: some values are universal and core to how we approach the world. And the same is true for Ukraine. This is not a local quarrel between two countries who are equally to blame. And neither is it a return to the Cold War with two opposing ideological and economic blocs. No, this is a defining moment for whether we live in a world governed by rules or by force. The central question is whether we normalise the illegal use of force or not…We condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine and support that country’s sovereignty and democracy, not because we ‘follow the US blindly’, as China sometimes suggests, but because it is genuinely our own position. This was an important message for the Chinese leadership to hear. Discussions at the Summit were frank but also serene - a fact that perhaps illustrates that neither side had exaggerated expectations. The EU side called on China not just to support Ukrainian sovereignty and the need for a ceasefire in abstract terms, but to use its influence with Russia to help bring one about and to rule out any active military support to Russia. The Chinese side stuck to general statements of wishing to see peace and de-escalation, but avoiding specific commitments, on getting a ceasefire. It is also important that China reaffirms its opposition to the use of weapons of mass destruction in this conflict.”

Also, key EU leaders visited Kyiv this week, and the messages being delivered from Bucha and in the joint presser with President Zelensky inform of the anger among European elite.

So what exactly is Beijing thinking in terms of its approach? To me, it seems that it is either

miserably misreading the mood in Europe, or
estimating that it’s economic heft and global significance will necessitate European countries to maintain balanced ties with China, or
banking on the current expression of Western unity to wane in strength in the not-too-distant future as the ground situation changes and Western populations push back against the economic costs that they will experience, or
perhaps all of the above

VI. Liu Zongyi in People’s Daily on Afghanistan

On the international page of the People’s Daily on Thursday, April 7, there was an article by Liu Zongyi detailing the the four key themes emerging from the recent meeting of the foreign ministers of countries neighbouring Afghanistan. Liu wrote:

First, the meeting “reflects the urgent hope and firm determination of Afghanistan’s neighbours to achieve peace and stability in Afghanistan and regional stability through coordination and cooperation. At present, Afghanistan is facing a serious economic and humanitarian crisis due to the suspension of international aid owing to the unilateral sanctions of the United States and the West and the freezing of billions of dollars of overseas assets by the United States. Around 55% of the population of Afghanistan is suffering from severe hunger. Afghanistan’s economy is heading for an ‘irreversible critical point’ (不可逆转的临界点) and various terrorist forces are still active. Considering this situation, China and Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries hope to further consolidate the consensus on the Afghanistan issue, discuss a ‘neighbouring countries plan’ to jointly promote stability in Afghanistan, support and help the Afghan people, and convey the ‘voice of neighbouring countries’ to the international community.”
Second, this is the first direct dialogue between all neighbouring countries and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Liu writes: “Over the past six months since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, the overall political situation in Afghanistan has been basically determined and the Afghan Taliban regime has the support of the majority of the Afghan people. It is not an objective and realistic attitude for the international community to discuss the Afghan issue while bypassing the Taliban in Afghanistan. Every neighboring country hopes that Afghanistan will achieve peace, stability and prosperity, and that the Taliban in Afghanistan will effectively fight terrorism. The Taliban in Afghanistan also realise that in order to address people’s livelihood problems and find a self-reliant economic development path, it is necessary to integrate into regional economic cooperation with the help of neighbouring countries. The participation of representatives of the Afghan interim government will help the neighbouring countries and the international community directly understand the difficulties and demands of the Afghan people, and it will also help the neighbouring countries directly express their concerns on the Afghan issue to the representatives of the Afghan interim government, promote communication and understanding between the two sides, and urge both sides to meet each other halfway.” 阿富汗塔利班执政半年多来，阿政治大局基本确定，阿塔政权得到阿多数人的支持。国际社会要讨论阿富汗问题，绕开阿富汗塔利班不是一种客观现实的态度。每个邻国都希望阿富汗实现和平稳定繁荣，希望阿富汗塔利班切实打击恐怖主义。阿富汗塔利班也认识到，要解决民生问题、找到一条自力更生的经济发展道路离不开周边国家的帮助，需要融入地区经济合作。阿临时政府代表参会，有利于邻国和国际社会直接了解阿富汗人民的困难和诉求，也有利于邻国直接向阿临时政府代表表达在阿问题上的关切，促进双方的沟通和理解，促使双方相向而行.
Third, the meeting “further guided the Afghan Taliban to build an open and inclusive political structure.” Liu writes about the invitation to the foreign ministers of Qatar and Indonesia to the meeting and explains this by saying that these countries have “not only played an important role in promoting Afghanistan's peace process and internal reconciliation but have also pursued a relatively moderate and inclusive ethnic and religious policy and a steady and open foreign policy.” The idea seems to be that these countries provide examples to the Taliban of moderate Islamic countries. Liu says that these countries’ policies provide an “important guiding significance” for the Afghan Taliban. He then adds: “The Pashtuns have always played a leading role in the history of Afghanistan, but the equal participation of other ethnic groups is a necessary prerequisite for the stability of the country. This will involve a very complicated issue of de-centralisation, which requires full consultation.” 普什图人在阿富汗历史上一直发挥主导作用，但其他民族的平等参与是国家实现稳定的必要前提。这将涉及非常复杂的分权问题，需要充分协商.
In the fourth and final point, Liu writes about the US-Russia-China troika meeting that took place at the sidelines of this neighbours meeting. He says that this was the first time that US and Russian diplomats were meeting on an international platform since the “Ukraine crisis.” He then says that 20 years ago, the US launched a war in Afghanistan under the banner of fighting terrorism, “and last year it withdrew irresponsibly, which caused the situation in Afghanistan to deteriorate. For the current humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, international assistance is critical, and the United States and Europe must shoulder their due responsibilities. The United States should shoulder its responsibility and increase its humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, instead of plundering away life-saving money from poor countries like Afghanistan under various pretexts.” 20年前美国打着反恐旗号发动阿富汗战争，去年又不负责任地撤离，造成阿富汗局势不断恶化。对于目前阿富汗的人道主义危机，国际援助不可或缺，美国和欧洲必须要负起重要责任。美国理应负起应有责任，加大对阿人道主义援助力度，而不应以种种借口掠夺阿富汗这样贫穷国家的救命钱.

He ended by saying that the meeting demonstrates China’s sense of responsibility as a major power.