Quick Note: The Churn Continues
Covering Chinese policy and rhetoric on external events and actors, military and security issues, economy and technology, and bilateral relations with India.
August 1st is marking the 97th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, and the week is being celebrated with great pomp and show on the one hand, and sombre inspections and hush-hush changes in PLA leadership on the other. While the nature of the leadership changes itself isn’t surprising, the fact that there is no official reportage or announcement on military media platforms such as 81.cn has led reportage to scourge for data from provincial coverage of Bāyī (八一; 81) ceremonies.
To begin with, as per a report published in ‘Southcn.com’ (Nanfang.com/南方网 or Southern+/南方+ yield the same results), in the afternoon of July 31 (China time), Guangdong Party Secretary Huang Kunming led a delegation to visit the Southern Theater Command headquarters and attended the 2024 Guangdong Province ‘August 1st’ Military Appreciation Symposium. This report of the Symposium adds that the attendees included Southern Theater Command Commander Wu Yanan and Political Commissar Wang Wenquan.
Army General Wu Yanan, 62 years of age, has in a muted manner, succeeded Admiral Wang Xiubin, the former commander of the Southern theater. Wang’s last few public appearances as commander of the STC have been in the form of foreign consultations in April 2024, first with France’s Commander of the Pacific Ocean and French Polynesian maritime zones Rear Admiral Geoffrey d’Andigne in Beijing on April 25, and then at a virtual meeting organised by the US Indo-Pacific Command in their Hawaii HQ on April 29. The former meeting also went well, as the two sides signed a ‘Framework Document on Conducting Inter-theater Maritime and Air Cooperation Dialogue between the Southern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Pacific Ocean Command of the French Forces’ (中国人民解放军南部战区和法国军队太平洋海区关于开展战区间海上与空中合作对话的框架文件).
Now, it is likely that sometime between ends of April and July, Wu Yanan was handed the baton, over two-and-a-half years after he was promoted to the rank of general in January 2022, and a year-and-a-half after he was transferred from the commander-ship of the Central Theater Command to the Central Military Commission Joint Operations Command Center.
Wu’s Central Theater Command successor, General Huang Ming, has now also been surreptitiously appointed as Commander of the Northern Theater. A similar report as the one from Southcn.com (referenced above), appearing in the Liaoning Daily, the northeastern province party committee’s official newspaper, on August 2, stated:
“On July 31, a military-civil government meeting was held in Shenyang to celebrate the 97th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. The event highlighted the deep bond between the military and civilians, enhanced unity between the military and government, and discussed joint efforts to implement national strategies and create new chapters in mutual support development. Hao Peng, Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee and Director of the Standing Committee of the Provincial People's Congress, attended and spoke at the meeting. Commander Huang Ming and Political Commissar Zheng Xuan of the Northern Theater Command also attended and delivered speeches.”
Huang Ming’s career has witnessed significant stints in the Northern and Central theaters. In 2012, he was a commander of the Shenyang Military Region’s mechanised division in Liaoning, went on to become Chief of Staff of the 16th Group Army, headquartered in Changchun, Jilin around 2014, and became first commander of the Central TC 81st Group Army in 2017. Subsequently, he became Central TC commander in January 2023, and has now returned to his northern theater roots.
His Northern TC predecessor, Air Force General Wang Qiang, rumour has it, is slated to now succeed Huang as commander of the Central TC. Meanwhile, there is no word on the appointment of the former Southern TC commander Admiral Wang Xiubin, who continues to remain a member of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC.
Wang Qiang had already been replaced as commander of the PLA ground force in January 2023, and was succeeded by General Li Qiaoming, former commander of the Northern TC (preceding Wang). Open source data from 2024 cites little mention of Wang in official activities, though there is reportage of his presence at the Bāyī ceremony last year, and his most active presence has been during his tenure in the Western Theater Command, first as deputy chief of staff in 2016, then as deputy commander of the Theater in 2018, and finally commander of the Theater’s Air Force, in April 2020. Indian armed forces have also had a brush with his leadership of the Theater’s air forces amidst the Ladakh/ Galwan valley standoff in 2020.
The churn in the PLA continues, as important agenda items in the security domain come to the fore. The pressure in the South China Sea is amping up, and the “principles” agreed between China and the Philippines during their Bilateral Consultation Mechanism meeting on July 2 have yielded no peace or stability. Was Admiral Wang Xiubin’s replacement a result of his inefficacy in handling China’s ambitious vision of the South China Sea? Was an Army general’s appointment therefore necessary to refine the doctrine for joint power projection in the region, given that Wu Yanan has extensive experience working in the CMC Joint Staff Department? These are questions the answers for which may seem at first like a ‘yes’, but the diverse reasons stay hidden in the corridors of the Bāyī building.
At this juncture, there is no potential reason to justify Wang Qiang’s replacement in a secretive manner. Of course, if one is to believe the rumour of his reappointment to the Central Theater Command, a corruption-related purge may be prima facie ruled out. However, it is likely that an official development, in the form of a CMC event to formally assign the new roles in the Northern and Southern theaters, may reveal reappointments of those removed.
EXTENSION ALERT - TAKE OUR SURVEY BY AUGUST 31st!
Following up from our previous edition, I once again encourage you to participate in our latest Survey, ‘The China Challenge Survey’.
The Survey is prepared by the Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy. This is the first iteration of an intended periodic Survey to assess public opinion on India-China relations.
Filling out the Survey should not take more than 5 minutes of your time. Please only fill the same out only once. Responses shall be accepted till 31 August 2024, 11:59 PM IST.
Please note that any and all information provided through the Survey will be completely confidential. Please also note that by submitting your responses, you are authorising Takshashila Institution to use the information provided for research, analyses and/ or educational purposes.
In case of any queries, please reach out to us via contact@takshashila.org.in, or using the comments space below the text of this edition.
Eye on China is a weekly newsletter curated by the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at The Takshashila Institution, a public policy think-tank based out of Bengaluru, India.
 | A guest post by
|