RIC & SCO Meetings - CTA Eyes 'Official Channel' to CCP - Rumblings in Gwadar - CCP's Outreach to Left Parties in S. Asia - China-Russia Collaboration - US Delegation in Taiwan - Japan Defense Budget
Dear Subscribers,
I hope this finds you well, and thank you for your support for the Eye on China newsletter. After over four years of writing this newsletter, I am happy to announce that it is undergoing a bit of a transition.
This effort is driven by two objectives.
First, to pool the expertise of researchers at Takshashila working on studying different areas such as the PLA, the Chinese technology sector, etc. Second, to cover a greater number of and draw insights from Chinese language publications.
The core focus of the newsletter, i.e., maintaining an Indian interests prism, remains intact, of course.
Warmly,
Manoj Kewalramani
China Talk Interview
Jordan Schneider, the host of the China Talk podcast, recently had me on for a chat about the work I do tracking the People’s Daily. This was an absolute pleasure. I’ve long been a fan of the show. It offers high-quality conversations that blend insight and humour.
You can listen to our episode here or read through excerpts below.
Also, in this edition of the newsletter, I’ve not discussed the big domestic stories from China. I recommend looking at my Tracking People’s Daily newsletter for the key domestic stories.
I. RIC & SCO
The 18th Russia-India-China Foreign Ministers’ meeting took place this week. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that:
“the three countries share common interests and similar positions in promoting world peace, stability and development...China is willing to work with Russia and India to carry forward the spirit of openness, unity, trust and cooperation, demonstrate its responsibility as a major country, and play a leading role...China stands ready to cooperate with Russia and India to send positive messages to the world regarding the practice of true multilateralism, the promotion of democracy in international relations, the importance of working together to fight the pandemic, and the need to boost economic recovery and safeguard world peace and stability.”
He also put forward five suggestions for cooperation:
practicing true multilateralism -- “China, Russia and India should hold high the banner of peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit and oppose all forms of zero-sum game and "new Cold War" schemes.”
respecting the legitimate rights and interests of all countries and allowing them to independently choose their development path -- He criticised the US Democracy Summit and said that the RIC countries need to “get out of the ‘democracy trap’ by certain country, and oppose interference in other countries' internal affairs under the pretext of democracy.”
strengthening global cooperation in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic;
promoting post-pandemic economic recovery;
addressing pressing issues through dialogue and consultation-- Specifically, here he spoke about Afghanistan and the JCPOA.
The Chinese readout also has Russia’s Sergey Lavrov saying that “the so-called free and open Indo-Pacific region is not an equal partnership. The tradition of the Asia-Pacific region is inclusiveness and harmony, and the diversity of the region should be advocated and promoted. Forming various ‘small cliques’ is a typical Cold War mentality, which aims at destabilizing the regional strategic balance, and the three countries should cope with it together.”
The official Russian readout of Lavrov’s comments doesn’t say any of this.
“RIC remains a crucial part of global and regional politics, especially in matters of ensuring security and strengthening state-to-state relations in the Asia-Pacific region and encouraging broad-based economic integration in Eurasia. The promotion of interaction within our troika is fundamental to creating a fairer and more democratic multipolar order with the UN at its core, and it contributes to the establishment in the international arena of universal values, such as multilateralism, equality and the rule of law. We are united by opposition to trade protectionism, the illegal imposition of politically motivated unilateral sanctions, and even more so the use of force in international affairs. We work as a team on an extensive UN agenda and within the G20, BRICS and the SCO. We support ASEAN centrality-based cooperation mechanisms in the Asia-Pacific region as well.”
India’s S. Jaishankar had some really interesting comments. First, he said: “Let me, dear colleagues, reaffirm India’s continued commitment to foster closer dialogue and cooperation among the three largest nations in the Eurasian region under the RIC mechanism.” He talked about the need for “timely, transparent, effective and non-discriminatory international response to global health challenges including pandemics, with equitable and affordable access to medicines and critical health supplies.” While Beijing wants “true multilateralism,” Jaishankar said that “we believe that a multi-polar and re-balanced world based on sovereign equality of nations and respect for international law and contemporary realities requires Reformed Multilateralism.” This bit followed his comments about India’s performance as a non-permanent member of the UNSC. Finally, speaking about Afghanistan, he said that he wants “RIC countries to coordinate respective approaches on the threats of terrorism, radicalization, drug trafficking etc.”
The meeting ended with a joint statement. There was much focus in India on this bit from the statement: “The Ministers expressed their support to China to host Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.” To me, this was as unsurprising as it gets.
Next, we also had the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting, with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar attending. Li said:
“Regional countries now face multiple challenges in resolving hotspot issues, addressing the convergence of terrorism and drug-related crimes, and protecting cyber security. We need to consolidate the basis of our law enforcement and security cooperation, and jointly prevent the spillovers of security issues.”
“We need to well harness the SCO program of alerts about major epidemic emergency caused by infectious diseases, enhance cooperation on the research and development of vaccines and medicines, and improve the mechanism of joint epidemic response. We need to enhance policy and technical exchanges on pandemic containment, and explore new cooperation formats in digital healthcare, telemedicine, basic health services and personnel training, to raise our ability in response to public health crisis. We will continue vaccine cooperation with other SCO members by donating, exporting and promoting joint production of vaccines, to promote vaccine accessibility and affordability in countries of the region.” He also talked about China setting up TCM centers in SCO states.
He talked about upholding the multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core, improving the trade and investment environment, enhancing “energy policy coordination,” enhancing “the development and use of renewable energy,” and keeping “energy supply stable and secure in the region.” China’s trade with SCO countries is “$395 billion.” He wants to do more, particularly boost e-commerce.
“We need to fully implement the Agreement on International Road Transportation Facilitation, expedite the development of international multi-modal logistics centers, and better harness the existing ‘fast tracks’ and ‘green lanes’, to keep regional logistics and supply chains stable and smooth. We need to open diversified financing channels, continue to explore viable approaches to the setting-up of an SCO development bank, and increase the share of local currency payment in the mutual settlements between SCO members, to provide strong financial support to infrastructure connectivity.”
“China proposes establishing an SCO information sharing system for multilateral coordination on emergency response and university alliances in medicine, law and agriculture on a voluntary basis, to further broaden and deepen our cooperation on sustainable development.”
“The socio-political impact of COVID-19 is far from over and has exposed the weakness of global institutions. This is the time to bring in much needed reforms to our global institutions, including the WHO, and rework our development strategies to face a post-COVID-19 world. For this, we need a Reformed and Reinvigorated Multilateralism that reflects today's realities, which gives voice to all stakeholders, addresses contemporary challenges and puts human beings at the centre of our thought and policies.”
“India believes that greater connectivity is an economic force-multiplier which has acquired greater salience in the post-Covid era. However, any serious connectivity initiative must be consultative, transparent and participatory. It must conform to the most basic principle of international law – respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
India considers the SCO as an important regional group to promote cooperation in various fields based on universally recognized international norms, good governance, Rule of law, openness, transparency and equality. It is unfortunate to note that there have been repeated attempts to deliberately bring bilateral issues into SCO. This violates the well-established principles and norms of SCO Charter. Such acts are counterproductive to the spirit of consensus and cooperation that define this organization.
A joint communique was issued after the SCO meeting. Xinhua English has a report on this. It says that “in a joint communique issued after the 20th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of SCO Member States on Thursday, the SCO delegation heads underscored the urgency to advocate building of a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness, justice and win-win cooperation, and forging a common vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind.”
It adds:
“The SCO member states will further promote policy coordination, security cooperation, unimpeded trade, financial integration and closer people-to-people bonds in a joint effort to build a peaceful, secure, prosperous and clean world, they noted. More work is needed to bolster SCO multilateral economic and trade cooperation, and the bloc plans to strengthen cooperation in finance, trade, investment, industry, transportation, energy, agriculture and the digital economy. The SCO member states consider it important to further improve the global economic governance system and will continue to consolidate an open, transparent, just, inclusive and non-discriminatory multilateral trading system based on the principles and rules of the World Trade Organization, they reaffirmed.”
Moving on, a couple of other noteworthy stories.
First, India Today reports that India and China on Thursday won the two posts as delegates for Asia to the Executive Committee of the International Criminal Police Organization. India’s candidate, Praveen Sinha, is a 1988 batch IPS officer who is serving as Special Director of Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). The Chinese official is Hu Binchen, deputy director general of the Ministry of Public Security’s international coordination department. SCMP reported that the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) had run a campaign to oppose Hu’s nomination. IPAC said it was deeply concerned by his election and reiterated its call for all governments to revoke extradition treaties with mainland China and Hong Kong. “Hu’s election gives the [Chinese] government a green light to continue using Interpol as a vehicle for its repressive policies globally, and places thousands of Hongkongers, Uygurs, Tibetans, Taiwanese and Chinese dissidents living abroad at even graver risk,” IPAC said.
Second, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla spoke about economic ties between India and China at a meeting of the Indian Chamber of Commerce. Broadly, he reiterated the government’s position that normal ties in areas such as trade and technology are based on peace and tranquillity being maintained in the border areas, but the two sides have been unable to “conduct normal relations” since China adopted an “aggressive posture and attempted multiple transgressions” along the border in eastern Ladakh...“Trade continues, there are investment ties that continue but all of this has to be examined very carefully and the government is examining all these options very, very carefully to ensure that our integrity and security remain intact.”
Third, ToI reports that China has overtaken the US and Germany to become the largest supplier of medical devices for India this year. This spike is, of course, an outcome of the pandemic.
Fourth, in his report for ThePrint, Nayanima Basu quotes Penpa Tsering, President of the Tibetan government-in-exile, saying that:
“We really want to play the traditional role of being a buffer but the buffer also needs this criteria of being independent between both countries. I am not sure how that can be restored. Nobody knows, we all live in hope. We want to turn Tibet into a zone of peace, that is very much the wish of Tibetans…Since we have been taken for a ride for too long, we want to ensure as to who we are dealing with (in the Chinese government) and preferably we would like an official channel to communicate what the Chinese government wants to tell us and what we need to tell them.”
Finally, an interesting piece on China Military Online. The author, we are told, is from the College of Information and Communication, National University of Defense Technology. The piece basically argues that:
“The Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation recently announced that Russia had begun to deliver the S-400 air defense missile systems to India. The US, who has been objecting military cooperation between the two countries, failed to tank this deal. For a long time, the US has been courting India to intensify its strategic containment of China. While India, who seeks to elevate international standing and gain some ground on the border dispute with China, has been trying to have it both ways between Russia and the US. However, India’s self-serving calculation seems unrealistic.”
“India’s domination in the Indian Ocean isn’t in US’s interests. A key principle of US’s foreign policy and military strategy is that it will try and nip any regional domination that might shake its own global hegemony. Therefore, India’s domination in the Indian Ocean isn’t in US’s interests, so Washington’s military support to New Delhi will definitely follow a line, that is, to achieve its own strategic goal through India while keeping it from interfering in and damaging US’s interests. In the meantime, the close Russia-India ties will dilute Washington’s trust in and expectation for New Delhi. The US doesn’t like its allies using Russian weapons not only because that would make the allies rely less on itself, impair the alliance’s cohesion, and hurt its own arms sales, but also because it would threaten the combat system of the American military. Modern warfare is a systematic project that has a lethal flaw – any local defeat would collapse the whole system. That’s the underlying reason why the US emphasizes the importance of keeping Russian weapons out of its allies’ weapon systems.”
Also Read:
China objects to CDS Bipin Rawat's remarks calling Beijing 'biggest security threat' to India
PLA develops new winter outfits for border troops on plateau
II. Region Watch
An echo of the increasing discontent with China’s presence in Gwadar has gotten louder in the past few weeks. The backlash against the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) of the Belt and Road Initiative is likely to continue until the following demands are met:
removal of unnecessary security check posts
availability of drinking water and electricity
eviction of big fishing trawlers from Makran coast
opening of the border with Iran from Panjgur to Gwadar
People from Gwadar, Turbat, Pishkan, Zamran, Buleda, Ormara and Pasni are taking part in the sit-in for over a week. Maulana Hidayat-ur-Rahman, the head of the ‘Gwadar ko haq do’ (Give Rights to Gwadar) movement, has strongly criticised Islamabad in the past over its failure to resolve the problems of Gwadar. Speaking about the restriction of people’s mobility and unwarranted questioning by security personnel he said,
“It is an insult for the sons of soil when they are stopped at checkpoints and inquired about their whereabouts.”
Many feel like strangers in their land.
The Dawn reported that the provincial government of Balochistan formed a committee to mediate with the movement’s leadership, but negotiations failed. A subsequent meeting held last week showed some signs of a breakthrough but the leader of the rally said, ‘...we have no trust in them (the government) and have given a three-day deadline for acceptance of all demands of the people of the movement staging the sit-in’.
Gwadar port, named the jewel in CPEC's crown, has failed to account for the welfare of its residents. For instance, local fishermen complain their small boats cannot possibly compete with Chinese trawlers to fish in the waters off the coast.
Despite the massive rally in Gwadar, it is doubtful that Islamabad will bow fully to compromise and irritate China. Accelerating its agenda, the government hosted a business delegation of 70 Chinese companies to trigger the second phase of industrial development. The Senate Standing Committee on Planning and Development has also directed the authorities to expedite the pace of CPEC projects in Gwadar and decided to send recommendations for the provision of gas and other facilities in the port city to Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Beijing, on the other hand, is bothered by local conflicts that loom large around belt and road projects. Chinese President Xi stressed businesses’ responsibility to evaluate risk regularly, and the need to establish a risk monitoring system and a thorough anti-corruption legal framework.
China’s weakening reputation in sections of Pakistan was made clear by a series of unfortunate incidents. This year in August, a suicide bomber attacked a motorcade carrying Chinese personnel on the Gwadar East Bay Expressway project. In October last year, gunmen killed at least 14 people near Ormara on the coastal highway after ambushing a convoy of vehicles travelling from Gwadar to Karachi and in 2019 five people were killed in an attack on the luxury hotel in Gwadar.
Despite the violence and people’s movements against it, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on CPEC Khalid Mansoor maintains that Gwadar would be developed as the world’s best port city.
In addition to the above, Manoj’s People’s Daily tracker this week covered a really interesting report about the International Liaison Department meeting with left-wing political parties in South Asia to talk about the 6th Plenum. Below is a summary. The report mentions the following speakers:
Nepal’s Vice President Nanda Kishor Pun. He is from the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre)
Sitaram Yechury, leader of Communist Party of India (Marxist)
Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, Sri Lanka’s Speaker of the Parliament
Dilip Barua from the Communist Party of Bangladesh (Marxist–Leninist)
In addition, around 300 people from about 20 left-wing political parties in South Asia, regional and international left-wing organizations and media representatives from think tanks attended the meeting, says the report.
The report adds that Song Tao said that the Communist Party of China is “willing to strengthen exchanges and mutual learning with left-wing political parties in South Asian countries in terms of theory, path and party building, deepen their understanding of the laws governing the Communist parties, socialist construction and the development of human society, and work together to fulfil the initial mission of seeking happiness for the people and promote the development of a better world.” -- Yes, and China has no intention of exporting ideology or its governance norms. This is just friendly chit-chat, of course.
III. China-Russia Collaboration
This was an interesting week for China-Russia ties. First, China’s Minister of National Defense General Wei Fenghe spoke to General Sergei Shoigu, defense minister of the Russian Federation, on Tuesday. The Chinese side reported that:
“the two sides stated that the solidarity between China and Russia is as strong as a mountain and their friendship is unbreakable, the two militaries will work together to comprehensively implement the important consensus reached by the heads of state of the two countries, continue to deepen strategic coordination and strengthen cooperation in strategic exercises and joint patrols, so as to make new contributions to safeguarding the core interests of the two countries and protecting international and regional security and stability.”
SCMP reported that the two sides:
“agreed to expand cooperation through strategic exercises and joint patrols in the Asia-Pacific, including the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, according to Russia’s defence ministry. Shoigu said there had been a “significant intensification” in activities by US strategic bombers near Russia’s borders. “Over the past month, about 30 sorties have been made to the borders of the Russian Federation, which is 2.5 times more than in the corresponding period last year,” he said. That included this month’s Global Thunder exercise, which Shoigu claimed involved 10 US strategic bombers in a scenario of using nuclear weapons against Russia from the west and east, and that they came within 20km (12 miles) of the Russian border.”
Then we had a chat between Li Zhanshu and Ivan Melnikov as part of the seventh meeting of the China-Russia committee for parliamentary cooperation. Li said that “the Chinese side believes democracy is not the patent of any particular country, but rather a common value of all people. Democracy is not an ornament, and there are many ways to realize democracy. It is undemocratic to measure the world’s diverse political systems with a single yardstick and examine the colorful political civilizations of the world with a monotonous eye, he added.”
He also added that “China and Russia need to continue focusing on maintaining the political security of the two countries, and demonstrate mutual support on issues involving one another’s core interests through targeted legislation. He also urged the provision of more complete legal support for the promotion of synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union, and urged the enhancement of legislative exchanges in COVID-19 prevention and control, public health and other sectors. He also called for closer coordination within multilateral frameworks.”
Also, there was this bit about Xi and Putin exchanging letters marking the end of the Year of Scientific and Technological Innovation between China and Russia. Xi said that through this period China and Russia had carried out more than 1,000 scientific and technological innovation activities. They have actively advanced bilateral cooperation in the fields of COVID-19 response, aviation and aerospace, nuclear energy and the digital economy with fruitful achievements, Xi said, adding that a China-Russia joint sci-tech innovation fund has been launched and their collaboration on strategic major projects has made significant progress.
Also note that Chinese Ambassador to the US Qin Gang and Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov jointly published an article in the National Interest magazine, criticising the US democracy summit.
They argued that:
“An evident product of its Cold-War mentality, this will stoke up ideological confrontation and a rift in the world, creating new “dividing lines.” This trend contradicts the development of the modern world. It is impossible to prevent the shaping of a global polycentric architecture but could strain the objective process. China and Russia firmly reject this move. Peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy, and freedom are common values of humanity. Democracy is not a prerogative of a certain country or a group of countries, but a universal right of all peoples. It can be realized in multiple ways, and no model can fit all countries. Whether a country’s path works depends on whether it meets the country’s realities, follows the trend of the times, and brings about economic development, social stability and progress, and better lives for the people. Ultimately, it relies on the support of the people and will be proven by its contribution to human progress. Therefore, a basic criterion of democracy should be about the people, i.e. whether the people have the right to govern their country, whether their needs are met, and whether they have a sense of fulfillment and happiness. If the people are only awakened when casting their votes and sent back to hibernation when the voting is over, if they are served with sweet-sounding slogans in campaigns but have no say after the election, if they are wooed during canvassing but left out in the cold after that, this is not a genuine democracy.”
Also this:
“Democracy is not just about domestic governance; it should also be reflected in international relations. A truly democratic government will support democracy in international relations. It will not foster hegemony and division abroad while building democracy and unity at home. The path to prosperity of nations goes through respectful cooperation with each other, despite some differences in views on particular issues. The sovereignty, security, and development interests of a country should not be violated. Interfering in other countries’ internal affairs—under the pretext of fighting corruption, promoting democratic values, or protecting human rights—hindering their development, wielding the big stick of sanctions, and even infringing on their sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity go against the UN Charter and other basic norms of international law and are obviously anti-democratic.”
Also, we had Chinese and Russian envoys in Vienna taking a joint position against AUKUS. At a joint press briefing, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, said that:
“at present, all U.S. nuclear submarines use weapon-grade highly-enriched uranium. If the trilateral nuclear submarine cooperation is to proceed, Australia will obtain a large amount of weapon-grade nuclear materials, which will seriously impact the international nuclear non-proliferation system…AUKUS not only violates the relevant norms of comprehensive safeguards agreements, but will also have a serious negative impact on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and the construction of nuclear-weapon-free zones.”
Wang Qun, Chinese envoy to the United Nations and other international organizations in Vienna, charged the three countries of drawing ideological lines and creating a new military bloc.
He said that the US had “flagrantly violated its policy of not engaging in a new Cold War, organized an Anglo-Saxon ‘small circle’ and placed its geopolitical interests above international solidarity - a typical Cold War mentality.” Wang pointed out that AUKUS has huge hidden dangers and serious harm. “From the perspective of non-proliferation, it is a sheer proliferation act.” The key to AUKUS is the transfer of tons of nuclear weapons materials by the two nuclear-weapon states, the United States, the United Kingdom, to Australia, a non-nuclear-weapon state, which obviously violates the purpose of the NPT, he explained.
Also this week Vice Premier Hu Chunhua spoke to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. Next week, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Li Keqiang will hold their 26th regular meeting on November 30. The Russian readout ahead of the meeting says that pressing issues on the development of the Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation with a focus on issues regarding interaction in the trade and investment, energy, industrial, agricultural, transport and humanitarian fields will be discussed.
Also Read:
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Has the newsletter been discontinued, or is it simply taking a pause? I have searched elsewhere but haven't been able to find much info. Thanks for your time!