Testing the Waters
Covering Chinese policy and rhetoric on external events and actors, military and security issues, economy and technology, and bilateral relations with India.
Guarding the Great Wall: The Spot Remains Hot
Anushka Saxena
Even as China and the world are grappling with ‘Liberation Day’ and Trump’s sweeping tariffs, in this edition of ‘Eye on China’, I hope to do a short de-brief of the many Taiwan-related developments that have occurred in the past few weeks. The main emerging trend is that China is becoming much clearer and more vehement in its pursuit of reunification with Taiwan, and the rhetoric coming out of Beijing is becoming more and more brutal.
Let’s start with setting a context. For 76 years, China and the CPC have decried the separation with Taiwan. However, under Xi Jinping, especially in the past few years, military aggrandisement in the Strait has reached new heights, to the point where it seems to be a fundamental bone of contention in US-China relations as well, in addition to being the big ticket item for military preparedness in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). From the reveal of the barge-like Shuiqiao (水桥) amphibious/ “water-bridge” ships at the Zhanjiang port in Guangdong province, to the news (and the rumours) surrounding the dismantling of the entire Taiwan-Fujian gang in the Central Military Commission and the PLA (main actors including CMC VC no. 2 He Weidong, former CMC Political Work Department head Miao Hua, and PLA-ETC commander Lin Xiangyang), everything seems to point to an urgency in China’s approach to the Taiwan issue, and a need to assert control over the situation. In addition, reportage from “intelligence sources” claiming that an invasion of Taiwan is as imminent as 6 months, published recently by platforms like 19FortyFive, are adding to public imagination.
Now, for some of the narratives and initiatives that are developing around Taiwan in general, and the island’s President, Lai Ching-te in specific, in China – I would like to point your attention to a political training text and a policy initiative that have been launched in less than a month to enhance both the CPC cadres and the grassroots’ understanding of and appreciation toward the agenda of reunification with Taiwan.
The text is the Cadre Reader on the Taiwan Issue of China (2024 Edition) [中国台湾问题干部读本 (2024年版)], compiled by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council. Published and launched at the National Library in Haidian, Beijing (the hub for China’s armed forces) on the 18th of March, the Cadre Reader is aimed at implementing the Central Committee’s decisions and arrangements on Taiwan-related work, unifying ideological understanding, and strengthening publicity and education on Taiwan policies.
The Reader was first published in 1988, and revised only once before today in 2015. The 2024 edition, however, features the most comprehensive set of reforms – including, for the first time, a dedicated chapter titled, “The Party’s Overall Strategy for Resolving the Taiwan Issue in the New Era.” It also includes newly added content on the development trajectory and key events in cross-Strait relations since 2014, as well as major initiatives in Taiwan-related work.
As per the State Council’s Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of Taiwan Studies, which obviously got its hands on the latest copy, the Reader is also a key resource for overseas readers seeking to understand the background and development of the Taiwan issue. As CSSN scholar Xu Xiaoquan highlights in a commentary:
The publication of this book holds at least three significant meanings:
For Taiwan-related workers and the general public, it helps deepen understanding of the CPC Central Committee’s major Taiwan-related policies, fully grasp the essence of the central government’s Taiwan policy, resolutely support and implement the central leadership’s decisions, strengthen awareness of coordinated efforts, and fully recognize the complexity, difficulty, and inevitability of resolving the Taiwan issue. It aims to foster a favorable public opinion environment and build strong synergy to advance the cause of national reunification in the new era.
For Taiwan “compatriots,” it aims to demonstrate the mainland’s sincerity and goodwill in promoting peaceful and integrated cross-Strait development, clarify and refute the DPP’s distortions and slanders of the mainland, and attract more Taiwan compatriots to recognize the historical trend of inevitable national reunification. It encourages them to uphold the greater national interest, firmly stand on the right side of history, and help grow the pro-reunification forces within the island, thus contributing to the realization of complete national reunification and national rejuvenation.
For overseas readers, particularly decision-makers in foreign governments, the book provides an understanding of the historical and legal facts that Taiwan has been part of China since ancient times, the legitimacy of China’s reunification efforts, and the significant contributions the CPC’s Taiwan policy has made to global peace. It aims to counter the DPP authorities’ distortions of the “One China” framework and attempts to expand “international space,” to further consolidate the international consensus on the One China principle, and to foster a favorable international environment for achieving complete reunification.
At the launch event for the Reader, Song Tao, Director of both the Taiwan Affairs Offices of the Party and the government, stated that cadres involved in Taiwan-related work should approach the new edition of the Reader from the “political height” of firmly upholding the “Two Establishes” and resolutely achieving the “Two Upholds.” He instructed them to deeply understand the historical context of the Taiwan issue in a bid to strengthen their “sense of responsibility and mission,” and “improve their competence and capabilities in handling Taiwan-related affairs.”
Secondly, a policy initiative launched on the 26th of March jointly by the Taiwan Strait Offices, is the Special Column for reporting the vile acts of “Taiwan independence” thugs and accomplices in persecuting Taiwan compatriots (“台独”打手、帮凶迫害台湾同胞恶劣行径举报专栏).
The launch of this mass-driven column came with a message from the Offices:
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities have recently been intensifying their suppression and persecution of political dissenters, as well as parties, organizations, and individuals on the island who support the peaceful and integrated development of cross-Strait relations. Certain “Taiwan independence” organizations, individuals, public officials, and affiliated internet influencers have acted as enforcers and accomplices—serving as pawns and aiding in this abuse of power.
If you are a victim of such suppression or have relevant information, you are welcome to send details to the reporting email address: jubao@suremail.cn. We will handle the matter appropriately, pursue legal accountability, and strictly protect the whistleblower’s information and rights in accordance with the law.
On that same day, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, called a media briefing, and stated that the column was launched at 8 A.M local time on March 26, and claimed that as of 5 P.M that same day, a total of 323 report e-mails had been received.
He explained that, based on an initial review of the submitted reports, those reported against, included: Liu Shih-fang, head of internal affairs in Taiwan’s administrative departments; DPP legislators Shen Boyang, Wu Sih-yao, and Huang Chieh; Taipei prosecutors Lin Da, Lin Jun-yan, and Lin Jun-ting; Black Bear Academy funder Tsao Hsing-cheng; “deep-green-leaning” dentist Shih Shuhua (check out a tweet of his from 2023 to understand his leanings and popularity); and pro-Taiwan independence internet influencers Wen Ziyu and Chen Boyuan. Reportedly, the e-mails accuse these individuals of various egregious actions, such as “fabricating charges to suppress opposition parties, threatening to disband pro-unification groups, intentionally detaining individuals who support peaceful cross-Strait relations, openly infringing upon the legitimate rights of mainland spouses in Taiwan, and inciting calls to ‘hunt down’ such individuals.” The reports express strong indignation over the persecution and suppression experienced by these “victims.”
It is an interesting experiment to make public the complaints of the people against Taiwanese influences and politicians, to both, stir domestic fervour against said “victimisation,” and to make China’s belligerent Taiwan policy seem people-centric and as extending beyond the singular mandate of the party-state. The reportage of such incidents is likely to go hand-in-hand with the implementation of the June 2024 ‘Opinion on Lawfully Punishing Stubborn “Taiwan Independence” Separatists for the Crimes of Splitting the State and Inciting the Splitting of the State’. The ‘Opinion’, published jointly by the Chinese Supreme People’s Court, Supreme People’s Procuratorate, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of State Security, and Ministry of Justice, enlisted punishments for acts of instigating and/ or undertaking acts of “Taiwan independence/ separatism” ranging from prison for 3-10 years and deprivation of political rights, to life imprisonment and death penalty.
In terms of narratives, two articles of particular interest appearing in the CPC’s People’s Daily, authored by the pseudonym “Zhong Yiping” (钟一平), have vehemently emphasised discontent with Lai Ching-te’s governance and the DPP’s China policy. As the China Media Project had proposed and explained in May 2024, ‘Zhong Yiping’ likely stands for ‘One China’ and ‘peaceful reunification’.
In the March 31 edition of the People’s Daily, a commentary by Zhong Yiping referred to Lai as a ‘Thoroughly Dangerous Instigator’ or ‘Absolute Danger Maker’ (不折不扣的“危险制造者”). Adopting a now famous Chinese phrasing on Taiwan, the commentary warns: “Those who play with fire will eventually get burned.” Further, key claims and contentions Zhong Yiping makes, which particularly indict Lai as a separatist and an independence-seeker putting the lives of 23 million Taiwanese at stake, include (as gathered from the commentary):
DPP’s “green terror” under Lai is enhancing: Since introducing the so-called “17 strategies” to address “five major threats,” Lai's administration has enacted heavy-handed policies, resulting in rampant abuse of power and legal violations, stoking widespread fear and anxiety [The 17 strategies for the 5 major national security and “united front” threats Taiwan faces today were discussed in Lai’s remarks at a high-level national security meeting on March 13]. From reinstating military tribunals to fabricating charges to suppress opposition parties; from tightening control over Taiwanese entertainers working in mainland China to condoning pro-independence thugs and accomplices who openly infringe upon the rights of mainland spouses in Taiwan and call for their “hunting”—the jaws of authoritarianism are wide open.
Lai’s “Cultural Taiwan Independence” is spreading hate for China: He [Lai] deliberately downplays and denies the historical fact and significance of Taiwan’s recovery [by China] from Japanese rule, instead promoting and glorifying the so-called “400 Years of Tainan” and the 50 years of Japanese colonialism. He calls for the removal of “Modern Chinese History” from military academy general education and cuts credits for Chinese cultural studies. He even maliciously slanders national hero Zheng Chenggong, who reclaimed Taiwan, labeling him a “colonizer.”
A Pawn in American Hands: He [Lai] demonizes the mainland, labels it a “hostile foreign force,” and sows panic. He flattered his way through visits to Pacific island nations and stopovers in the U.S., fawning under the guise of “democracy” in a pitiful attempt to trade loyalty for support. He continues to purchase weapons from the U.S., hypes up the idea of “universal conscription,” and stages “combat readiness drills.” Lacking basic rationality and misjudging the situation, Lai’s policies grow more reckless by the day. These dangerous and vicious moves will only lead Taiwan further into the peril of military conflict and destroy the fragile peace in the Taiwan Strait.
The commentary concludes by warning that each time Lai “provokes” Beijing, the latter takes more and more advanced counter-measures, and further “tightens the grip” on the island. This, it argues, will lead to the “complete reunification of the motherland.”
The Zhong Yiping commentary in the April 2 edition of the PD takes rhetoric up a notch, and refers to Lai as a “A Ruthless ‘War Monger’ (穷凶极恶的“战争制造者”)” with an “inflated political ego.” Beyond this, too, the commentary really lays into Lai and his policy approaches, claiming:
When fate seeks to destroy someone, it first drives them mad. Since taking office, Lai Ching-te has acted recklessly and provocatively. On March 13, he proposed a so-called “Green Terror Independence Action Plan” [the 17 strategies, i.e.], deliberately escalating hostility and confrontation with the mainland. This has significantly increased the risk of war and cast a heavy shadow over peace in the Taiwan Strait.
A few more things Zhong Yiping adds to the 31 March tirade in the April 2 piece, include (as gathered from the commentary):
Lai’s cause and his “foreign masters”: Like a fool dreaming, he [Lai] seeks to “internationalize” the Taiwan issue, relying on foreign powers to achieve the perverse dream of independence. On one hand, he employs money diplomacy, bribery, coercion, and inducement to expand the so-called “international space” for “Taiwan independence.” On the other hand, he squanders Taiwan’s resources to curry favor with external forces—whether through overpriced arms deals or by offering up strategic enterprises like TSMC. [Interestingly, on April 3, The Information published a report claiming that TSMC has agreed to acquire a 20% stake in Intel and run its semiconductor foundries in the US, citing two people involved in the deal negotiations. Intel’s chip exports have been in troubled waters for a while due to a dip in its competitiveness, and apparently, TSMC has been requested by Trump’s administration to help Intel out.]
Making peace by inciting war: He [Lai] hypes up “raising public awareness of homeland defense,” “strengthening national defense,” and “exerting deterrence.” From raising Taiwan’s defense budget to over 3% of GDP and squandering taxpayers’ money on arms, to staging so-called “immediate combat readiness drills” and “whole-society defense resilience exercises”; from signing “pre-stocked ammunition support agreements” with local temples to issuing “youth service consent forms” to high schoolers—he is constantly fueling war hysteria, manufacturing threats, and selling fear.
As Beijing marked the 20th anniversary of the adoption and enactment of the 2005 Anti-Secession Law on March 14, China’s top legislator, Zhao Leji, spelled similar (but not unusual) rhetoric on curbing Taiwan’s “independence” and getting rid of “external interference.” And readers would know that Article 8 of the Law stipulates:
In the event that the “Taiwan independence” secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The April 2 commentary by Zhong Yiping very interestingly refers to the Anti-Secession Law as a “looming sword” which, if mobilised, will lead Lai to “dig his own grave.” These are highly strong words, in that in the recent past, the provisions of the Law regarding the use of non-peaceful means have rarely been used to incite fear and deterrence. At the Taiwan Affairs Work Conference that took place in February 2025, too, the phrase “peaceful reunification” was newly missing from the government work report, even as CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning emphasised “advancing the cause and trajectory of reunification.” To that, Chen Binhua had clarified that China will “strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity” as long as Taiwan separatists do not “provoke, coerce, or challenge the bottom line and cross red lines.”
Lastly, and most importantly, a word on yet another set of PLA drills, the ‘Strait Thunder-2025A’ Exercises conducted on April 1/ 2, 2025. We know from the ‘Joint Sword’ Exercises of 2024 that if there is an ‘A’, there will also be a ‘B’, and potentially also a ‘C’, for the Strait Thunder series. What is different about these exercises is also that they were much more comprehensive, widespread, and involved different components - Carrier Battle Group exercises and PLA Rocket Force demonstrations – along with a relatively usual spike in joint sea and air-related sorties, including beyond the median line of the Taiwan Strait and into the island’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the PLA Eastern Theater Command, informed at around 8:08 A.M local time on April 2 that the exercises shall be confined to central and southern theaters of the Taiwan Strait, and the missions under focus would include verification and identification, warning and expulsion, and interception and seizure, aiming to test the troops’ capabilities in regional control, joint blockade, and precision strike operations. By late afternoon, at around 3:30 P.M the same day, the PLARF was testing its “cross-Straits killing machines”—multiple modular long-range rocket artillery systems—to conduct live-fire ammunition exercises.
These were likely the PHL-16/ PCL-191 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRSs) that have a range of about 300 km, and can easily target sites in the Strait and on Taiwan proper. This time, as shown in a video released by the PLA-ETC, the precision strikes were conducted against simulated targets such as key energy and port facilities. As highlighted by Fu Zhengnan of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences in a Global Times commentary, the MLRSs have 6 advantages for an amphibious campaign in the Taiwan Strait:
It has a long range, capable of reaching hundreds of kilometers and covering the entire island of Taiwan.
It offers high precision, achieved through advanced guidance technologies that enable a margin of error of less than one meter within 300 kilometers.
It possesses strong firepower, as a single barrage can deliver dozens of munitions of different types, creating powerful fire coverage and destructive effects.
It has high mobility due to its relatively small size, making it easy to hide and leading to strong survivability on the battlefield.
It offers high cost-efficiency, as its cost is lower than that of conventional missiles, allowing for deployment in large numbers.
Below is a China Daily video (reposted from the official Weibo account of the PLA-ETC, but interactable), wherein the live-fire exercise processes are displayed:
In this case, it is widely reported that the schematics of the target the barrage of 16 missiles was launched at, resemble an LNG storage facility in Kaohsiung’s Yong’an District (永安) [the 6 round white circles are meant to simulate 6 Yong’an semi-subterranean fuel storage tanks]. As much as 40% of Taiwan’s electricity grid is powered by LNG – making such energy facilities and key port areas like Kaohsiung province strategically vital targets for the PLA.
Choking resources for the island will also require the PLA to undertake an indeatructible naval blockade. A major component of the 2025A drills was mobilising naval resources, and the Shandong CBG simulated its tactical role in such a scenario. Most vessels in the drills operated outside Taiwan’s “contiguous waters,” and the Shandong CBG, with 8 warships, was placed about 190 nautical miles southeast from Cape Eluanbi, Taiwan’s southernmost point (check out this graphic by Focus Taiwan for the placement details). The CBG’s exercises included ship-aircraft coordination, area air superiority operations, and strikes against maritime and land targets. As many as nearly 80 PLA aircraft conducted sorties in Taiwan’s ADIZ, signalling the extent of sea-land-air jointness under focus. The number remained at around 60 on April 3 – a 50% hike from the nearly 30 sorties conducted around March 27-28.
A preliminary assessment suggests the Strait Thunder 2025A set of drills was not as gigantic as the extent of the Joint Sword 2024B exercises. While a few targeted simulations were undertaken to demonstrate resource control and choking, the focus was not on testing “actual combat capabilities” of troops (as was the case with the latter, and included establishing strike positions, conducting land and naval live-fire exercises, and conducting joint assaults). Nonetheless, the routine of the drills demonstrates that China continues to take the threshold of conflict higher, and its brinkmanship has created a new, dangerous normal in the Strait that makes peace seem elusive.
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Eye on China is a weekly newsletter curated by the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at The Takshashila Institution, a public policy think-tank based out of Bengaluru, India.
